So far Calpine has said nothing in advance of the call. Hopefully that is good news, we sure need it. We need for them to beat the 11 cents per share loss consensus and for them to reiterate their break even guidance for the year. The consensus is currently a loss of 13 cents. That would mean they beat and raised expectations for the first time in three years which is what the market has been waiting for them to do. The heavy selling leading into this conference call indicates the street expects bad news.
I expect the conference call to be a non-event. Any earnings news would have to be quite large for it to matter, everyone knows 2004 GAAP earnings are irrelevant. That's not what caused the action in the past week, as described earlier on the boards here, it appears to have been a combination of the Duke sale and the reaction of bond holders to the evident lack of current sales value, even in modern plants, as the RRI news showed.
Which means nothing long-term and not much short-term either. First CPN only has a few plants in the SE glut mess (many more are in the tight CA market), and second, CPN has no present need to issue debt in this market, it already got by that, so . . . who cares. But the market is still volatile and the timid don't want to be holding the bag again, that combined with a short sales run. This too shall pass.
<<The heavy selling leading into this conference call indicates the street expects bad news. >>
Actually, I expect "bad" news too. This stock is going thru a HUGE growth cycle. "No pain no gain" My belief is this is the bottom quarter. Many strengths coming together from here on out. If CPN stumbles and has to sell an asset or two, I'd rather do it in the summer when they keep telling Cali to conserve electricity.
People keep whining about this stock but CPN keeps on rolling. Bashers don't bother me, I have over 20 years at a true loser company, I can smell the difference.
My company's message board has employees that hate almost everything the company is doing. Real hate, with specific facts to back up the anger. The complaints here are pretty weak.
I can wait. A long slow move up would be the best. Unfortunately, it will not go that way.
Long as CPN has the cashflow, not worried. Economy seems to be coming off the bottom and homes will continue to be built. Institutions seem be picking up CPN for the long term. Put just about another 500 shares in the IRA's. CPN has the potential to turn around fast with decent prices.