Over the 38 years I've had an interest in BB&T stock and collected dividends, The rumor mill has lifted the shares ten to fifteen times (making an acquisition less likely.. think about it), then back to business as usual.
With this CEO having no desire to sell and I'd guess loathe to be the CEO who was at the helm when NC's oldest bank got sold, I'm compelled to believe this is another ummerited move in the stock for which we're all very grateful.
Don't be fooled by the blather about the community banking model..The numbers show BB&T's efficiency ratio is top quartile and that model is ideal for a small/medium business targeted bank. The loan portfolio is highly diversified without the concentration of large national credits held in other banks of similar size.
I may be proved wrong, but my bet is that when BB&T is sold; 1) JAA will not be CEO, & 2) it will happen with no rumors and no prior runup in share prices. Most likely scenario: another MOE or foreign acquirer. IMHO
If something is not up, why would one person buy July out of the money call to the tune of 125K. This was the move that started all the vol. on the options yesterday, IMO he knows what is about to happenas much as this scum bag trader....
"The Facts About the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks and Insider Option Trading"
The images of the devastating terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania, will be forever etched in our memory � but here�s something you may not have known....
The following article, �Black Tuesday: The World�s Largest Insider Trading Scam� reveals the following trades connected to the September 11 attacks:
�- Between September 6 and 7, the Chicago Board Options Exchange saw purchases of 4,744 put options on United Airlines, but only 396 call options...Assuming that 4,000 of the options were bought by people with advance knowledge of the imminent attacks, these �insiders� would have profited by almost $5 million.
- On September 10, 4,516 put options on American Airlines were bought on the Chicago exchange, compared to only 748 calls. Again, there was no news at that point to justify this imbalance...Again, assuming that 4,000 of these options trades represent �insiders,� they would represent a gain of about $4 million.
(The levels of put options purchased above were more than SIX TIMES HIGHER than normal!)
No Similar Trading In Other Airlines
Occurred On The Chicago Exchange In the Days
Immediately Preceding September 11th!
- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., which occupied 22 floors of the World Trade Center, saw 2,157 of its October $45 put options bought in the three trading days before Black Tuesday (Sept 11); this compares to an average of 27 contracts per day before September 6th. Morgan Stanley�s share price fell from $48.90 to $42.50 in the aftermath of the attacks.
So every time options trading explodes it is due to impending terrorism?
Or is that only for Puts?
More than a few people were speculating that a buyout was in the offing (and quite a few speculated that it was just a rumor). They accomplished this "speculation" by buying and selling BB&T stock. Those who were willing to make a bigger bet(or perhaps needed a hedge) did so with Puts & Calls.
It doesn't mean they knew what was going to happen.
What possible connection do you see to 9/11?
And even though this is a painful reminder of what happened to America � the fact remains... �in-the-know� & �smart money� nearly always shows up on the option exchanges FIRST before major events of news happen in the future.
I have followed Fan's postings for many many years. IMHO his post # 8023 is right on the money.
Fan is correct in his assements of BB&T's situations more often than he is wrong.
PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT HE JUST SAID!!!!
Fan may be right about the rumors--they are probably incorrect unfortunately for most stockholders. But he is wrong about the community bank model. How can you call BB&T, the tenth largest bank holding company in the country, a small to medium sized bank?? There are 9,000 insured banks and thrifts in the country and the medium size is about $200 million. Neither BB&T nor its subsidiary banks is even close to being medium sized! I don't think BB&T can compete with the community banks anymore. They need to take advantage of their size and consolidate their operations and banks.
Fan, I must agree with your likely scenario of an MOE. My "guess", 5/3. Check out this story http://www.snl.com/bank/archive/20040517.asp, pay close attention to footprints, 2nd chart. A really good geographic fit, and JA's been looking to travel a little more to the west.
All I am saying is that if you own the stock at a decent price, profits from a sale at the right time could be a very nice feather in your cap if you have the courage to hold on till the smoke clears"..I could have sold at a nice profit, but I think there is still more steam left yet".