Let's face it, no matter the what is propagated, BB&T is either 1.)being internally reorganized for a sale within 12 to 18 months or 2.) being internally reorganized to "better align itself with it's peers" (as management has recently communicated) and will try the independent road for 18 months (give or take 6 months) and see how earnings will play out. If earnings continue to increase from "organic growth" then JAA can make his case for independence, but if not then by that time BB&T will be already packaged for an incoming suitor. Let's face it though, BB&T is in some very poor markets for extensive "organic growth". WV, rural VA and NC, KY. BB&T is getting clobbered in these areas by community banks willing to give no fee checking on personal and business deposits and have much less constraints on loans. So, without "one time charges" and "merger related expenses" the pressure is on to show true performance from core growth. I do not think ananlysts and big investors to are going to buy into the projections until they see some true results from organic loan, fee, and deposit growth. The employees are certainly feeling the pressure to perform.
Only if they do it through organic growth. If you merge, the Fed will force you to divest assests ( deposits and the branches holding them ) down to 10% of the national FDIC deposits. BAC is at the 10% limit IIRC and I believe that there is one other ( not C so probably JPM ). WFC is at about 5%.
One point that I was trying to make is that we only need the "blue laws" if we regress to the 1950's. I understand the 30% deal and I also think that it covers "market areas" as well as states (ie D.C., suburban Maryland, N. Va. & Baltimore are considered a "market area"). Using these rules, would it not be possible for 4 banks to own all of the business in the U.S.? Of course, as we all know, laws are changed every day and sometimes these laws are based not on common sense but on the "recommendations" of powerful lobby groups.
To post # 9111---there is a middle ground here.
Prediction is trend is to end up with 4 USA banks.
It would be nice if BB&T would be one of them.
Separate thought - why buy BB&T if it is not increasing in value? Other stocks are - JCP for example with a future.
What is the future of BB&T or banks in general.
Isn't BB&T a place to park money in order to not lose ... better than 1% bank interest ... but a poor choice for profits via growth?
Let me also pose this question. Would Wells, Wachovia, or any other bank on this scale want into these rural markets? When you look at their footprint, BB&T is primarily in rural markets with some nice metro areas thrown in. 5/3 is currently building it's way into WV from OH. Future possibilities with these two?? I doubt it, but who knows.
Let's see here ... Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Atlanta, Louisville, Norfolk, Washington DC, St. Petersburg, Naples, Orlando, Knoxiville ... just to name a few markets BB&T's footprint includes. I know for a fact that BB&T's Commercial Real Estate lending in all of these areas is really beginning to flousish. Let's see ... on pace to make earnings above $1.5 Billion .. yeah, you're right ... Well's wouldn't want any part of that. Are you kidding ?? That's why BB&T isn't for sale. They worked hard to establish those markets, and now they're looking to establish a stronghold in each.
Let me answer for Wells since I have invested in them longer than any other bank on this scale. They are really the old Norwest (NOB). The have a background of being in such teeming, metropolitan, urban areas such as Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho - to name a few. And, they cover the whole state not just the cosmopolitan markets such as Des Moines, Souix Falls, Duluth, Green Bay, Fargo, Cheyenne, Butte, Bismark, ... AFAIK, they are one of the top ag lenders in the country. They actually have people whose job it is to visit pig farmers at the farm; not just sit in a office and wait for the sh_t to fall off the farmers shoes!
BB&T has compeditive issues from community banks in Georgia also. Look at the two new commerical banks in Savannah and Macon. Both have 150mm+ in assets and are now profitable. Both were started in early '02 a year or so after BB&T came into these markets!