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BB&T Corporation Message Board

  • normlasky normlasky Jun 30, 2008 8:21 PM Flag

    History Worth Revisiting

    Sometimes history is worth revisiting.

    On January 17th, bbt announced 26 consecutive years of record operating earnings.

    After the street had 2 days to digest bbt earnings release, stock opened at $27.90 on 1/22 and two days later reached $36.15. Over those 3 days 46 million shares traded. Undoubtedly price increase was largely driven by short covering.

    Bbt goes ex-dividend on 7/9. Earnings release is 7/17. Guesstimated 80 million shares short at 6/30.

    Trends going into 7/17 earnings release are:

    Net interest margins in the 2nd qtr. will be up around 15 to 20 bsp.

    Earning assets will be up 3%.

    Insurance income will continue to set new records.

    Home prices in south were up 7% over last 3 months.

    Credit quality essentially unchanged vs. first qtr as 30-89 day delinquencies were essentially flat at 3/31/08.

    Would not want to bet that bbt won't extend record earnings for the 27th consecutive year.

    Comforting thoughts if you're short!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • First of all, you don't seem to have a clue as to the last period when there was a banking crises, here's a hint, it wasn't in any of the periods you mentioned. Second, before you criticize MY FACTS, check your own because it's clear you don't know what the hell you're talking about.

      Comment: Your're right my figures were wrong. See, I am man enough to admit when I am wrong. The numbers were LOWER than I stated. Here are the numbers from IBD:

      http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20080702/bs_ibd_ibd/20080702realestate

      As to the last banking crisis - the last Government bailout was in the early 90s with the S&L real estate lending fraud. At the time many considered it a crisis. Since you are an idiot that makes up their facts I have no idea what you consider a crisis.

      YOU HAVE BEEN EXPOSED for what you are.

    • open your mouth and prove yourself the king of fools. talks lots, says very little. you have had lots of practice.
      king of fools, thats you.

    • >>Comment: Not sure where you get your information. In 2007 4 banks were taken over by the FDIC. In 2005 and 2006 the FDIC took over no banks. So far this year 10 banks have been taken over by the FDIC. The FDIC has some 90 banks on their watch list. If every one of those banks fail we still are nowhere near the 7% you say have FAILED. <<

      Usually I don't bother to answer fools like you. But I'll make an exception this time. First of all, you don't seem to have a clue as to the last period when there was a banking crises, here's a hint, it wasn't in any of the periods you mentioned. Second, before you criticize MY FACTS, check your own because it's clear you don't know what the hell you're talking about.

      Read a book or something, I'm sure if you take the time, you will eventually figure out the period I'm referring too. My facts are fine, you on the other hand are an a$$hole.

    • Women only allowed on board if they understand I am captain. Mutiny is punishable by... Well it depends on the woman.

      Too funny

    • I love boaters

    • Do you have the slightest idea what's happening here or are you going to persist in Cinderella dreaming?

      Comment: Since you have the crystal ball - tell us. We are always ready for a good laugh.

      too funny.

    • Lastly, I believe that during the last financial crises about 35% of banks failed, so far we've seen around 7% fail and IMO, this time's going to be a lot tougher before it's all over. We have a perfect storm here and I see no end in sight at this point.

      Comment: Not sure where you get your information. In 2007 4 banks were taken over by the FDIC. In 2005 and 2006 the FDIC took over no banks. So far this year 10 banks have been taken over by the FDIC. The FDIC has some 90 banks on their watch list. If every one of those banks fail we still are nowhere near the 7% you say have FAILED.

      I have to think since your statistics are so shitty they are out of your ass.

    • I'm running late this afternoon, but I wanted to acknowledge your posts from today. There's really not a lot that I can add, other than to agree that your time lines are basically in line with mine.

      It's funny how these guys argue that somehow BBT is doing better (or will do better) than some other banks as though one building on fire is better or worse than all the other buildings on fire. I'm not suggesting that BBT will fail, because I have no idea what will happen as this all playes out. What I do believe, is that like you, the price of these banks will remain deeply depressed for much longer than most around here have any idea about.

      Lastly, I believe that during the last financial crises about 35% of banks failed, so far we've seen around 7% fail and IMO, this time's going to be a lot tougher before it's all over. We have a perfect storm here and I see no end in sight at this point.

      Have a great Independence Day nobanker and I look forward to more of your posts.

      Cheers

    • >>Let's talk about EPS. Many analysts are projecting 2009 EPS between 2.80 and 3.20. Do you have analysis that suggests those #s won't be met? <

      You (and many others) continue to focus on either future fundamental expectations by broker analysts that will change their perspectives at the drop of a hat or the precious dividend as though these were some sort of inviolate guarantee. What you fail to recognize is that the entire financial system is in crises. It's like you only wish to quote numbers based upon what, the latest future projections before they occur? How many so called genius's predicted a recovery in the second half of the year? How's that going? Just as nobanker keeps trying to explain to you and others, this is about much more than the simple expectations of some future earnings nonsense as though the outcome is assured or that the economy magically improves in the face of a leverage/liquidity/energy crises.

      Tell me, how's that tax stimulus working out, or the oil price or failing capital investment or those with mortgage backed equity loans or those with credit card debt? Do you have the slightest idea what's happening here or are you going to persist in Cinderella dreaming? Nero played while Rome burned, you're doing the same thing with your fantasy scenarios. It's amazing that you can persist with these same arguments while the entire banking industry tanks. Are you so naive as to believe that all this can occur and BBT will not be involved? Amazing denial and hubris on your part, I feel sorry for you.

    • Not really, unless you call being lucky the same thing. BB&T was considered to be a "big NC bank" in the 1920s. When the run on banks occurred (i.e. Great Depression), 000s of small banks perished. This saw the concurrent spike in Postal Savings. And where did the post office deposit its deposits? At a bank! And if all the banks are bust, where do you go? To BB&T! That's how BB&T survived: its often better to be lucky than smart. Its a little different today, the Fed & FDIC are safety nets for overly aggressive bankers. Back then, when liquidity vanished, BB&T grew (see above), but today, with liquidity a pure central banking function, where will BB&T get additional assets and/or capital to grow that is/are somehow different than the billions in auction rate securites that every other bank takes advantage of? Can BB&T somehow charge more for the same credit, (where credit has become a commodity)? This has been a growing dillemma for the past decade. They are stuck in idle, the only direction is backward unless Mgmt comes up with its first new "play" for its playbook in 20 years. Will BB&T fail? Probably not. Could it? Yes.

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