On Fast Money tonight she again killed BBT. Thinks that auditors will force big time mark downs in fourth quarter. Finnerman has been short BBT for months and has used her slot on Fast Money to destroy shares.
I have been out of BBT shares for awhile. All of my banking business is however with them. If on Jan 22nd we earn 50 cents (or close to it) I will mortgage the farm and put all that I have in BB&T shares. Stay tuned!!
K. fine might have a winner with bbt but she has been wrong on the majority of her picks in 08. she must be in with gs because several weeks ago gs spewed negative comments about bbt. one jew loves another but bernie madoff apparently isn't your typical jew!
BBT has earned its premium to the peer group status.
The Barron's note on the SE is interesting and hard to ignore. If we have learned anything in the last 18 months, it's that when things look bad they can still get worse.
However, the only big money I made trading in the first 10 months of 2008 was with BBT. Getting it at under 20 was a gift - it doubled in just a few months.
KF does not do her homework and is ignorant of bbt's cre portfolio. 60% of their cre portfolio are income producing properties which have very low default rates. And those that default are almost always sold at book so losses are insignificant.
Per Fed Reserve reports, Bbt 9/30/08 delinquencies actually showed significant improvement in cre and c&i loans. Bbt has continued to shrink the residential acquisition and development portion of cre. Balance will be down to around $8 billion at 12/31/08 with maybe 5% 90 day past due. Bbt has a reserve of around $500 million on the $8 billion, so I don't see much pressure. Also, this reserve excludes any markdowns on cre already taken on cre loans which have not been foreclosed on.
Net interest margins will probably be flat at around 360 to 370 bsp. Loans will grow proably around 2% for the quarter. My guess is that eps will be in the $.60 to $.65 range.
KF knows nothing.
Looking forward to 12/31/098 short interest. Probably up a ton. What are the shorts going to do when investors begin to realize bbt earnings potential once delinquencies begin to normalize?
Norm, thanks for the reminder of details. I went to the BBT web site and reviewed the numbers and given the economic environment last qtr's numbers look OK. Long term of course they cannot continue to have profits decrease and defaults increase at the 3rd qtr rates. Even thoug I expect the 4th qtr to be in the same range as the 3rd qtr.
I was wondering about your estimate for increased loans of 2%. Is that qtr over qtr or year over year. Given BB&T should have gained as WB went thru the whole takeout process I would expect a nice bump in deposits and loan growth. So I am thinking your estimate must be qtr over qtr or a 8-10% year over year growth.
Is this a correct assumption?
I would have guessed NIM will increase, because of better terms and conditions on loans.
I am not as sanguine as you about the loan portfolio, but my opinion is based on the belief that CRE valuations are going down by a lot. I just think there will be too many sellers without enough money to finance the buyers.
Great to see you back Ayscuew !!
Your insight has been missed!!!
Keep on posting!!!
The market is pricing BBT, WFC, USB as if they are going out of business!!
Hope we don't test the July lows!!!