60 min piece last night shows how bad it really is for banks.
I hope you are correct. Unfortunately, everything in your argument is based on management estimates. That's where the issue lies - are they accurate and will they survive a "stress test"? I have assumed they were good all along - and all the way down. I have assumed their lending practices were sound but no one anticipated the potential of 10+% unemployment. Furthermore, enough other bad loans in the neighborhood will exacerbate your loss severity as well. But, like I said, I hope you are right.