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BB&T Corporation Message Board

  • inlet_boater inlet_boater Feb 23, 2009 8:08 PM Flag

    Wilson - some reading to confuse you

    Let's look at the cycles and how they align the next 3 months or so. We start with looking at how the longer cycles have aligned over the past six or seven months and then look forward the next 3 months at how we expect them to align. I have done this on a timeline first showing the longer 3.5 month cycle (69 trading days) and underneath that the 2 month (39 trading days cycle).

    Around Mar 24 the 3.5 Month cycle tops just as the 2 month cycle bottoms. They should pretty much offset each as far as price movement in the indexes are concerned the next 3 weeks. The main mover will be the short term 7-8 cycle (400-500 points amplitude). So the averages look flat thru most of March as these two cycles cancel other out and continues until around mid to late April when we get a correction during May.

    Both the 2 month cycle and the 3.5 month cycle should bottom around the last week of May. If we are to set new lows (again) on the averages I would expect this to be the timeframe in which this will happen. In June both of the cycles are in synch to the upside. So if we set lows as expected at the end of May it gets followed by a strong rally in June.

    OK, lets look at the near term. The short 7-8 day cycle should bottom by Tue close (Feb 24) or possibly Wed morning (Feb 25). Since the 3.5 month and 2 month cycles are going opposite directions (3.5 month cycle up, 2 month cycle down) this short cycle will be the primary market mover the next 2-3 weeks. So we get a 400-500 point trading range with "maybe" a slight upward bias. So as I see it you swing trade these short 7-8 day cycle movements for the next 3 weeks or so.

    You go long Tues Feb 24 by close or early Wednesday Feb 25 and close out positions by Fri Feb 27 or early Monday Mar 2. Then you short on Mar 2 (or play the short ETS) from Mar 2 thru Mar 4 (maybe Mar 5 AM) and cover shorts (sell short ETFs) and go back to the long side.

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