well, today was a pure gift trade again, just sell the rally on the first hour of trading and then close out the shorts around mid-morning to noon area near the lows of the day -- but don't count on that working anymore because we have a few adjustments that must be dealt with in order to maintain the pattern we have developed for over 5 months and counting
there is no doubt we are overbought at this short-term juncture, so selling rallies or guarding the longs is a wise choice as this point in the pattern -- if we do take out the S&P 500 LEVEL Highs of 956, then the idiots will go long the market and it will take the market higher, which will be met by the smart ones that will sell into the strength, and the S&P 500 would probably go back below the 956-951-923 area -- but this would just tip off the remaining idiots to buy the market as a minor pullback and then the market should re-break-out above the highs, but this time it will sustain itself for a little and probably not return back toward the 951-956 area until the next move takes place
so the first breakout, you sell it and expect the pullback, but the second breakout, it will not be sold off the top quite as quickly
so far the USDollar has fully cooperated, and so has COMMODS & OIL/ENERGY -- key up on these factors to keep you in charge and to continue to be on the right side of the trade
there was one guy that asked me if we were forming a double bottom before breakout -- he is correct, but it will be more of a short-term move, rather than the long-term expected move -- i forgot who said the double bottom, but he deserves to be recognized as a job well done -- i will try to find his yahoo id later and post it -- but remember, it's a short-term move only -- we will deal with the larger move later
we will probably breakout over 956 relatively soon, but even if we did, i would focus on short-term shorting and cover it when we get back below the breakout point -- we've has a pretty good little run the past 5 days and i doubt the smart money is going to pay up for it here -- i was guess they will do the same as me, which is focus on shorting the highs of the first breakout -- the market can move lower, but since a breakout is expected, i am not going to short it here as it can move sideways and possibly work off the short-term overbought condition -- but i feel the breakout is going to happen, so be prepared and have some balls to go short on the highs of the first breakout -- we call this survival trading, which turns out that those are the ones that are making all the money
let me add what i have said before...
with improving cost cutting measures and tons of money being thrown at the system, the profit growth picture could improve into the year-end, and some higher stock prices can take place -- but after that, we will have to reassess
there was a 50/50 chance of reaching the S&P 500 LEVEL at the 200 Day-Moving-Average and you post is spot on
you are one of the few that has a handle on the entire picture -- as always, a job well done
please take new note on the idea that the gov't is feverishly trying to keep rates lower or their entire support plan (not sure how long they slated that mess of an idea for) will become a catastrophe -- credit easing and liquidity is their entire driving force to this fake earnings disaster
that is exactly correct, there is one more leg to go down in order to complete the mess on the financials
i have not read the article you posted, but i will browse thru it when i get a chance, but i suspect it will only agree with my stance
keep up the good posting
Look at the economy from a larger perspective.
The entire banking sector has another leg down to go. BBT may be the best in the sector. . .why chance it?
I stick by my two ideas on the market.
Re: 3-23-09 24-Mar-09 08:40 am The S&P 200 DMA is around 1,000. I wouldn't be suprised if the markets hit or even corrected to just above that indicator before continuing lower. Rating :
(No ratings) hloseo
Re: ..........GAME PLAN.............. 30-Apr-09 09:51 am The problem is not the flu. The problem is the fed is printing money much faster than it ever has before, we are running trillion dollar deficits, we have zero interest rates, our banking system is on the brink of bankruptcy, our housing market is dead, and we are running at a negative 6% GDP.
We are throwing everything we can at the problem, and even if we do delay any more destruction of our present economy, when we do stop all this support, the economy will eventually have to pay for our past sins with further decay.
People are treating our present situation as just another recession. The markets may go up past the 1000 on the S&P which I have said we may hit, but it's just temporary and market downtrends hit much harder and faster than uptrends.
There will be many people that will make a lot of money taking advantage of our pesent situation, but is will be those with cash when the final collapse comes. Play the small moves if you like, but don't discount the potential destruction of wealth that will take place when we hit the final bottom probably within the next 3 to 5 years.
Good luck. Rating :
(No ratings) hloseo
when BBT was on the MARCH LOWS in the upper 12s, you were nowhere to be found -- whereas i was the guy showing balls who had it right and said to buy the entire market
you are back to # crunching, but #s this time will not be the way it's going to unfold -- this is about business, and business is going to proceed in a different fashion from now on -- we'll talk #s when we get back to a more realistic environment -- the #s you are fetching out of BBT may not be what you think -- and we've had this conversation before about the accuracies of what is being reported to you
idiot inlet hasn't said anything of use so he is worthless -- no great loss
but even the idiot inlet has his shining moments like the thought that BBT taking over RF is about the same chance as idiot inlet picking up a girl including that chance of success with her
GL on your BB&T (and other) holdings. Sorry, I cannot respond to Bucket Hole as I see nothing he posts (ignore works well on Yahoo message boards). I do not have you patience with fools.
You posts are always appreciated as they always contain great "nuggets" of information.
You and I disagree on whether BB&T should buy RF. Might be an idea for a year from now, but looking at RF's results it seems to me they still have too many issues and potential issues at this time to be considered. Of course, neither of us even know if BB&T management is even considering this action.
If we get anything like the 700 failures during the S&L debacle in the early 90s BB&T should have many chances to cherry pick assets within their operating areas. I see no reason for any hurry though in making any major acquisitions.
"under reserved BBT company that recently pumped up their reserves that i had been yelling for over a year now"
Perhaps, you don't realize that bbt has about $1.5 billion reserved for bad adc and 1st mtg loans. Their aggregate portfolio for the adc and mtg stuff is around $22 billion. Their average mark is about 23% which means that about 1/4 of the entire $22 billion portfolio can go bad and be covered with their reserve. The balance of their loans are performing well and delinquencies in almost all cases have improved during the last 2 qtrs.
Considering that bbt has personal guarantees on about 80 to 90% of their adc loans, imo, their adc reserve are vastly overstated. Imo, the bank increased their reserves in response to concerns put forth by the Fed regarding a adc market which had gone into a death spiral but going forward will be resurrected from the grave as the economy slowly recovers.
The situation on 1st mtg is similar to adc but not as bleak. The residential mkt is bad but homes are generally fetching about $100 per square foot which is well below replacement cost. This situation will also turn around going forward.
So when bbt comes out on the other side of the recession, I believe we'll be looking at this:
* nim of 360 bsp or greater
* substantial higher investment income resulting from much higher deposits.
* other non-interest income almost equal to non-interest expense
* provision for bad loans of say 75 bsp.
Do the math and eps is in the $5 to $6 range. If bbt takes over rf we'll see a quantum leap in earnings.