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  • lipintr lipintr Jul 31, 2009 9:27 PM Flag


    FWIW KK discussed in the conference call restoring the divi to a 4-6% which, while still respectable, is not the 7.8(ish)% it was when cut. To expect the previous level divi or higher anytime soon at least on an absolute basis vs percentage basis is probably wishful thinking particularly since that percentage was created by a massive equity selloff.

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    • This stockis going to have a long run in the 20s, not for a few quarters, but for a few years.

      • 2 Replies to nobankersplease
      • "This stockis going to have a long run in the 20s, not for a few quarters, but for a few years."

        You do realize that their primary nemesis, adc loans, has been shrinking nicely (down 12% in 6 months) and now totals $6.9 billion with a reserve of $740 million or about 11%. 80 to 90% of adc loans at bbt are personally guaranteed which is much higher % vs. most of their competition. With builder inventory of new homes most recently, dropping 2 months or 19% bbt adc portfolio including their reos is bound to improve over the next several qtrs. And when it does the stock price should rebound sharply.

        Historically, loan losses have been in the 50 bsp area. Their current provision is around 290 bsp. When the crisis in their adc porfolio resolves itself, imo the provision is likely to drop to 100% which is worth roughly $2.00 per share annually.

        Other positives:
        * increasing margins on commercial loans since their primary competition, loan securitization, has been destroyed or permanently altered.

        *increasing income from marketable securities resulting from huge growth in deposits

        * increasing income from insurance operations (20% annualized)

      • This stock will soon be back in the $30 range due to improving economic fundamentals and should see a strong retracement back to its previous highs within one year or less.

36.4233+0.8833(+2.49%)1:36 PMEDT