S&P 500 earnings have been very good. I look for a 5 to 7% correction in late February as the earnings season comes to an end. Look for the s&p 500 to reach 1400 by year end with projected s&p earnings of $105 in 2012.
I'm about 30% cash. I plan on holding my core bbt position but will continue to buy and sell as the stock seesaws back and forth. Bbt is clearly on an upward trend. As the credit problems, particularly bad land loans, are resolved, the stock has explosive upward movement given the magnitude of their loan loss reserve.
Norm, thanks for you well stated response. As I stated - I am going out on a limb in stating the downturn starts next week. That is what my TA shows.
We don't seem to be in that much disagreement about expecting a downturn in February. Sounds like you may expect it 1-2 weeks from now. Also I would not be surprised if it is more than 7% down.
We could argue about the year as a whole. I believe inflationary pressures for commodities and inputs could negatively affect margins as the year progresses and therefore limit profit gains this year. If this happens I would contend that 1400 by year end is agressive.
Only time will tell. Best of luck to you in your efforts.