I revised my forecast based on recent comments from management of BB&T. Specifically:
1. In the Q4 earnings presentation, Mr. King showed the "cloud" slide, which was very positive, and his comments were bullish.
2. The annual report has similar comments in the narrative and management discussion.
3. The salary increases by the Board are indicative of a much improved outlook, and would probably not have been given unless a solid Q1 was evident.
My new outlook is for $2.22 per share for the year, with $.41 per share in Q1. This is still short of Norm's forecast, but I am creeping towards him.
Careful. If you increase it another 7 cents, you'll end up conceding the bet.
Couple of noteworthy items today:
-fitb announced $.06 quarterly dividend. The consensus for the 1st qtr and 2nd qtr are $.23 and $.33 respectively. Payout ratio appears to be in the same range as usb, wfc, jpm, stt, bk.
-fdic assessment of banks is positive:
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
The U.S. banking sector continues to improve and absent an economic shock should continue on that path, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Tuesday.
In an interview on CNBC, Bair said credit quality is improving and bank earnings are "strengthening."
"Almost all the indicators are pointing to an improved banking sector," she said. Bank failures peaked last year and will be "significantly lower" in 2011, Bair said.
"Absent something unforeseen happening with the economy, I think the banking sector will continue to mend quite nicely."
BBT has always been conservative and well managed throughout Allison's Presidency and now King's. The earnings increase will most likely come from the Insurance side of the business. BBT is still one of the top 10 insurance companies in America. BBT has done some major cost cutting lately, and write offs will be lower.
Great observations investorial. It's no wonder you changed your forecast, particularly with the decidedly bullish signal of showing the cloud slide. I think Mr. King also had his hair parted on the right side instead of the left. Do you think this is something that should be factored into your forecast model?
Investy: You were pretty close on your 1st quarter forecast. BBT earnings were only 22% short of your forecast. Heck, 78 is a passing grade in public school. Your class rank is above Norm's which should make you feel really special. Of course if you keep creeping you might catch him.
Keep following those paid professionals. Can't go wrong there.
I like the amateur analysis on this site.
Frankly, Norm hasn't been right but he may have been "early".
I have made decent money trading this stock particularly with options.
Currently, I am long. Sold 10 June 26 put contracts a while ago.
Bought 20 17.50 Jan 12 call contracts for 9.80.
Hold 3400 shares but sold 5 Oct 35 calls for pocket change and 5 Jan 12 40s as well.
Sure hope we get a run.