Norm and Investy - Let's see those forecasts for the 2nd Quarter. I see the consensus estimate from Analysts who make a living doing this tedious crap is $.41 per share.
Even though the consensus estimate was only $.01 less than actual eps for the first quarter and you two guys weren't close, I believe you are more serious and thoughtful in preparing your projections than the jackasses that get paid to do the job.
Keep up the good work. Remember, a broken clock is right twice a day. Your day will come.
Thanks for your generous comments - euphemisms. You're right. The accuracy of my forecasts has been poor. I have consistenly underestimated the severity of the raw land portolio - adc, cre and retail (lots) - which collectively totaled around $11 billion at the peak and currently has been worked down to around $4 billion.
My most recent miss is largely to chargeoffs in excess of the 50% oreo mark - $175 million bomb included in 1st qtr earnings.
Eventually, I think my work and confidence in bbt will pay off.
Norm, As you know I have thanked you a number of times for what you bring to this board. Also, I have chided you as your opinions (even before this last earnings announcement) have not been accurate. I have generously called you "early". Hey, it happens. Particularly later in life.
Nonetheless, you elevate the conversations on this board and you have helped me make some money - trading not investing. Your posts have given me a confidence in a "bottom" for BBT into which I have sold puts. My next is the June 26 that I sold some time ago for 2.02. I hope it expires at 0. For 10 contracts that's a nice haul and required almost zip in actual investment.
"The net effect of all the revenue and expenses was a reduction in Pre-tax, Pre-Provision earnings of $248 million in the 1st quarter of 2011 compared to 4th quarter 2010. On an annualized basis, this will amount to approximately $1 billion."
I think you need to drill down into the numbers. Your conclusion is way off base. For example - Bbt took a $100 provision for colonial covered loans in 4th qtr. and received credit for like amount from fdic but was offset by fdic revenue sharing. The bank took a $75 million hit (60% plus mark on principal amount) against noninterest revenue in the first quarter for loss on loan disposition. The foreclosed property expense ($140 million plus) in the 1st qtr is primarily the valuation charge on oreos which will vanished by year end.
Investy: So you think white lies are OK. Here's a great quote from you relating to earnings management (or "Cooking the Books") that I will place in my permanent file.
"It is done every day. I have done it myself."
By the way, do you ever watch the CNBC series "American Greed"? They have a segment on HealthSouth which, if you haven't seen it, you would probably enjoy.
Only a couple of more questions:
(1) What is th largest Market Cap of the public companies you have worked with (2) Please let me know the name of your current employer when you take it public so that I can avoid the shares like the plague, although I doubt that it will have sufficient liquidity to interest me anyway. BB&T has the lowest market cap of any of my current holdings.
I really don't understand what you are saying. I think BB&T did incur an annualized reduction of $1 billion in earnings power in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the 4th quarter of 2011. In reviewing the tables in the April 21, 2011 earnings release, BB&T reported a $43 million drop in Mortgage Banking income, a $21 million decrease in fees on deposit services and investment banking, a $58 million decline in FDIC loss share revenue, a $99 million decline in securities gains, a $20 million decrease in other noninterest income and a $47 million decline in net interest income. These items, which reduced 1st quarter revenue, totaled $288 million. Offsetting part of the revenue declines was a reduction of $49 million in overall noninterest expenses, the most significant categories of which were a decrease of $15 million in personnel costs, a decline of $19 million in Foreclosed property expenses and a decrease of $21 million in professional fees. The net effect of all the revenue and expenses was a reduction in Pre-tax, Pre-Provision earnings of $248 million in the 1st quarter of 2011 compared to 4th quarter 2010. On an annualized basis, this will amount to approximately $1 billion.
I suspect you reply will be that both of the quarters were "managed". I don't see how you can make that statement unless you are a BB&T employee, a former BBB&T employee or a former BB&T auditor. Enlighten me please and I don't mean by reiterating your vast knowledge of the corporate accounting world. I am not interested in your opinion concerning the accounting practices of "the majority of corporations". My interest, as it relates to this Board, is confined to BB&T. If you have real knowledge of any BB&T reporting high jinx, please share it. If you don't, please quit pontificating about what others may or may not do and projecting your opinion on to BB&T.