"Given my expectaiton of the dividend, and assuming I want to lock in a yield at 4.5% or better for now, I would not pay over $18."
Sell price for a january 2013 put is $1.12 per share at $17.50 strike. There's your trade. I've been doing it on both bbt and usb at these levels.
The math is simply - bbt normalized earnings are $4.50/5.00 share. Don't think you'll ever get the opportunity to go long bbt at $18 which is close to their current tbv.
Next week I think you and many other folks will be surprised that their delinquencies are quickly approaching a normalized level. Plus, their loss severity rates will start to approach zilch on 09,10,11 defaults so their losses will be very small.
As I said, maybe i cannot get what i want...meaning at $18 i would back up the truck. So, as inlet said, probably smarter just to stay away. I frankly dont think anything will happen until next year's election.