Good move up last few days. Down 9.4% for the month of August. All of the analysts and commentators (CNBC) remind us that September is usually a down month. See no possibility of a big (beat the street) third quarter. Where do we go from here??? Where will our stock trade on September 30th????
I would keep an eye on the weekly Fed report for US banks released Friday. Also the weekly rail data from the association of american railroads is another key report.
The data for the 3rd qtr 2011 so far is similar to the 2nd qtr. 2011 with two exceptions - banks have racked up tremendous gains on their investment securities ($29 billion at 8/17) and closed end residential mtgs are up 2% from 6/30/11 although this may be short lived due to the plunge in refi applications over the last 2 weeks.
Look for banks to release $15 billion from their ALL (about 7%) as credit metrics continue to improve in the 3rd qtr.
Kelly King is suppose to present at Barclays on September 13th. My understanding is that he will be discussing roe and roa going forward which should be very helpful to investors.
I think a big catalyst is the potential for m&a. There are many solid banks selling for huge discounts vs. their tbv.