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  • sbolc69 sbolc69 Sep 3, 2011 1:17 PM Flag

    Is Normlasky a BBT plant?

    "Economy not on the brink?" Zero jobs created, $1.5 trillion debt this year alone. One of two things is going to happen. Unemployment goes to 18% or inflation goes to 10% Either way, our standard of living takes a serious hit because in either situation, the Fed government won't have the tax base to pay for Social Services, Infrastructure, Military and the many other services we are used to having. We have lived well as a country for 40 years from the industrial revolution. Problem is, that money is not flowing into our economy anymore. Those companies are on life support and one by one are dissappearing $8 an hour jobs in foriegn countries. Technology is only delaying the inevitable for many of our companies. Some benefit greatly from tech advances, but the middle class, the auto, steel, appliance workers are retired, spending their billions on retirement. When that is spent, game over!!

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    • " One of two things is going to happen. Unemployment goes to 18% or inflation goes to 10%"

      The driver of last recession was excessive consumer debt fueled by Greenspan, FNM/FRE, and Wall Street greed.

      Tell me what the drivers are go 18% unemployment or double digit inflation considering:

      1. US population growth is 1% per year resulting in 1.1 million new household formations.

      2. Construction is at rock bottom and has been that way for several years. Multifamily housing is likely to increase significantly in 2012 and thereafter.

      3. Manufacturing jobs have increased by 300,000 in last year. Long way to go to recover the 4.5 million jobs lost since 2001.

      4. American business is doing very well driven by 8% growth in emerging nations. Intel, for example, derives 40% of its sales from oversea.

      5. Consumers have substantially cut debt.

      6. Refis have and continue to improve consumer discretionary income. Big surge in refis in 3rd qtr. 2011.

      7. Bank balance sheets are rapidly improving. I think their loan losses will drop to 75 bsp in 2012.

      8. Simpson/Bowles has a good solution to US budget deficit. Can be implemented without wrecking US economy.

      9. Relatively high unemployment will keep inflation down.

      10. US still imports $300 billion of oil. Will drop to zip eventually as US becomes energy independent.

      The list goes on. Maybe you can name a few negatives which will double unemployment to 18%?

      • 3 Replies to normlasky
      • Maybe you can name a few negatives which will double unemployment to 18%?

        Who needs a few items - unemploument/underemployment is already near 18%. But let me answer in one word: Japan. Check it out we are on the same path with QE1, QE2, QE3, etc...

        Or, if you don't like that answer I have another one word answer: deflation. It has got to happen to flush the system. The Fed and the govt may delay it but natural economic cycles will be satisfied.

        5. Consumers have substantially cut debt.

        Mainly due to defaulting on mortgages, CCs, etc. The consumer debt still rivals annual GDP so any decrease has been very marginal.

        I can rebut many of your other points, but what is the use - you got those rose colored glasses on. lol

      • 1. US population growth is 1% per year resulting in 1.1 million new household formations.

        You should read this on the composition of future population demographics:

        http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/113444/shrinking-workforce-boomers-curb-expansion-decades-bloomberg

      • Norm, your are joking, right. We are at 18% right now, especially given the way the numbers are now defined vs the way they were in the 1970s and this "underemployed" nonsense. The fact is everything good can be explained by two words: MONETARY POLICY. And the current monetary policy is not sustainable...we are simply delaying the inevitable. Just wait when the government (i.e.the fed) has to take out the phony supports. You will not want to be owning this or any other bank stock then. Just gold. then when asset prices plummet and all the foreign investors who are salivating at the dreary price of the dollar get caught with their pants down, then you move back in.

 
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