Now I see why Inlet is so keen on the ECRI. They also don't provide the analystical details behind their calls. Nothing like good sound independent thinking Inlet.
Below is an except from ECRI. Says we're probably going to see negative economic growth this quarter 2011 and throughout 2012. Declining productivity? We're at a record high. Exccessive indebtedness? Consumer indebtedness is at lowest level since 2000. Elevated inventory? Inventory turnover ratio is at the best level in history. Contracting real wages? Not according to bureau of labor statistics. What garbage. Suggest you stick with your charts Inlet.
"The ECRI doesn't provide the general public with the analytical details behind its calls, but earlier this month the Hoisington Investment Management quarterly report a similar forecast for negative growth with an interesting analysis that warrants close reading. Here is the opening paragraph and a snippet near from the conclusion:
Negative economic growth will probably be registered in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2011, and in subsequent quarters in 2012. Though partially caused by monetary and fiscal actions and excessive indebtedness, this contraction has been further aggravated by three current cyclical developments: a) declining productivity, b) elevated inventory investment, and c) contracting real wage income....
In summary, the case for an impending recession rests not only on cyclical precursors evident in productivity, real wages, and inventory investment, but also on the dysfunctionality of monetary and fiscal policy. The full report in PDF format is available at the Hoisington website."