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  • normlasky normlasky Dec 2, 2011 6:52 PM Flag

    ECRI - Negative 4th Qtr. GDP

    ECRI said that the US economy entered recession in September of 2011. Here it is on tape - an cnbc interview with Lakshman. The interview runs about 7 minutes. If you're an ECRI fan I think it's a real eye opener.

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    • >>The 'Purchasing manufacturing index' (PMI) is highly correlated to GDP. So what does it say when all the major manufacturing nations (but the USA) PMI are under 50 (or recessionary).<<

      • 1 Reply to inlet_boater
      • Here's the statement from pm:



        Manufacturing continued its growth in November as the PMI registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points when compared to October's reading of 50.8 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

        A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 30th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 28th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through November (55.4 percent) corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for November (52.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real GDP annually."

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