ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Tom Keene (Bloomberg) about ECRI's recession call. 12/8/11
Have it marked on my calendar.
Let's see - adp jobs plus 206k, pmi 62 best expansion in year, pending residental contracts plus 10%, good productivity 2.3%, 5% loan growth per weekly fed report, railroad traffic up about 4% in last 6 weeks, strong earnings, booming thanksgiving sales.
"Even with the downward revision from 2.5% to 2.0% for the second estimate of Q3 GDP, many will see the postive Q3 GDP as a repudiation of ECRI's recession call.
ECRI itself did not offer a specific date for the start of the forecast recession. A general view is that ECRI's headlights shine about six months into the future, which would make Q1 2012 GDP the critical number for evaluating ECRI's stance."
Keep watching as this is a forward looking call and frequently occurs when GPD is positive.
ECRI said that the US economy entered recession in September of 2011. Here it is on tape - an cnbc interview with Lakshman. The interview runs about 7 minutes. If you're an ECRI fan I think it's a real eye opener.