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BB&T Corporation Message Board

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  • spinvestor2003 spinvestor2003 Apr 21, 2012 8:20 AM Flag

    Norm Rest of year?

    "Their 1st qtr. results were already close to the $3 eps pace you estimated for 2012. "
    --> 2013.

    "$4 share eps equates to about a 15% roe. King said in a mid year presentation in 2011 he thought the bank could achieve that level once earnings normalize. The bank has achieved 15% roe historically."

    Your $4+ EPS 2013 requires 1.5% ROA and 10x Leverage for 15% ROE. 1.5% ROA just ain't gonna happen for 2013. Therefor for your $4+EPS from 15% ROE, King needs to re-lever the Balance Sheet. Avg. Leverage is ~9.75 currently. King would need to relever the balance sheet ~30% to 12.5x to for 2013. And he won't do that as his B3 capital ratios reduce. (BBTs historical higher ROE you reference was driven by higher leverage than they carry currently)

    Not going to happen - 70BP provision + foreclosure expense savings don't get you there.

    $4+ EPS ain't on the cards for 2013 whatever way you cut it out side of a transformational acquisition.


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