On 11/7/11 you posted the following message to this board. If I were you, I would be a bit more humble. Indeed, I've had difficulty projecting the severity of bbt loan losses and timing but at least I've been on the right side of the United States macro picture. Don't recall anyone missing a forecast more so than ECRI. Your faith and trust in these guys was a huge mistake.
"Two months ago, the ECRI made a very definitive and unwavering recession call going even so far to state that "there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off." Since then, the markets have rallied strongly on the heels of recent positive economic data, leading many in the mainstream financial press to accept that the U.S. has narrowly averted an impending recession and will begin to see growth. Not so, says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief economist and spokesman; citing under no uncertain terms that "nothing has changed our view".
Who should I trust? Organizations like IMF, World Bank and others with very questionable records or ECRI?"
Humble about what? I posted information from a source - it was not my opinion. People are free to research the source and decide for themself. Yet you have attacked me personally as the messenger several times for bringing outside sources to the board. Shame on you.
I don't know (nor do I care) what your objective is. You get lost in #s of individual stocks (I don't as I look at the bigger picture because short to intermediate term few companies buck the market trend).
And yes you do have lots to be humble about based on your calls - but keep it up and sooner or later you may be right and BBT goes to $40, $50, $60 and you can claim victory.
As to ECRI - we will see - as I have pointed out more than once the projections average about 6 months in advance. We are now at the 6 month mark (average), so it is early to declare they missed the call (I do know that we have had some squishy economic #s over the past 2-3 weeks).
Not your opinion? On 11/7/11 you said: " Who should I trust? Organizations like IMF, World Bank and others with very questionable records or ECRI?"
Clearly, you placed more trust in ECRI than numerous other credible organizations even though the economic data for the United States showed slow and steady economic growth - 2.5% - while Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief economist said that the United States had already entered into recession. Many economists attempted to check out ECRI assertion but their data is proprietary so it can't be analyzed.
As a footnote, Achuthan recently said his proprietary model says the United States is not in recession and is growing. Ha!