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  • nobankersplease nobankersplease May 4, 2012 2:09 PM Flag

    What Many of You Don't Know:

    Norm,

    Me thinks you dont understand finance (or just dont like smarty's facts). Yields on treasury or GSE investments will go up (and a lot too), but the value gets marked down on the security itself. ..the net payments to BB&T dont change for what they hold, but the price collapses. The runoff as you it call will be impaired, as they will get far less on the liquidation/maturity of the insturment than what they are carrying it for now. When you add in transaction costs it is a net loss no matter how hard you try and explain it away. And for any increase in yield they may get on such securites in the future (after they realize the loss on sale), they will have a matching requirement to simultaneously pay depositors more for demand deposits, CDs, etc. When the portfolio gets clipped it is a hit to equity, which impairs the TNW you are so proud of. This is all bad for a bank. And you assume that BB&T is never going to take the proceeds of its cash and securities portoflio and lend it out....nice. How is that going to help grow its loan portfolio? Oh, I forgot, they only make loans to "creditworthy" borrowers and there must be a limitless supply of those.

    You may also not understand how stress tests work with the Fed and CoC. The comment about home mortgage LTVs is well, bizzare, to you use your phrase. As if an implosion in the treasury, bond, and currency markets will not impact mortgage backed securities, because they have 80% LTV ?!?!? (and according to whom is that number attributable? Your friends at BB&T?) And who cares anyway? Were you on Mars in 2008-2009 when asset backed securites were valueless, even the ones that were ensured by the govt.

    And buddy, you need to stop referencing what "BB&T says" to defend your arguments. Do your own work. Will NIM increase? maybe. Will loan growth plummet? maybe. Credit spreads will not necessarily widen (which is needed to grow NIM) just because benchmark yields go up. In fact in a rising interest rate environment economic growth will be so shallow banks will have to tighten spreads and relax credit quality to attract loan growth. NIM does not improve on match funded duration if spreads tighten...now if BB&T wants to fund itself in the overnight repo market, that's another thing entirely.....

    And if BB&T decides not to tighten spreads to attract loans, their NIM may in fact be great...on the one or two loans they make in a year. It will be great for the loan officers, they can play golf all week becuase they sure wont be making any loans.

    Please cover all the points, not just ape what BB&T wants you to ape, or some cut and paste job on arcane and meaningless stats on the internet designed to dazzle the uninformed on yahoo.

 
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