First, the payout ratio is likely to stay at 30% for several years. The bank needs to build capital. It just retired $3 billion of trups. Basel 111 requires additional capital.
Last qtr. bbt earned around $.72 before one time charges (bbx acquisition). Assuming the provision for bad loans normalizes at 70 bsp per year and the ridiculously high foreclosed property expense stops, the bank should earn close to a $1 per qtr. There is no acceptable reason why the current provision should not be 20 bsp below current net charge-off rate. Exclude adc charge-offs from the equation because this portfolio should be at rock bottom.
I look for the bank to increase the dividend to $.25 per qtr. in the 1st qtr. of 2013.
Obviously, not happy with last qtr. eps headline which I think tanked the stock on October 19th. It was not the 375 bsp comment which is old news going back to 2011. It was the headline and they need to spin it right going forward - otherwise, they'll chase buyers away.
Additionally, they need to provide much more transparent in the press release and earnings call about some of the items I've previously mentioned in prior posts.
At current price bbt is a good buy but so are pnc, wfc, jpm and several other banks. Best of luck.