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BB&T Corporation Message Board

  • Banks_for_Bucks Banks_for_Bucks Jul 14, 1998 3:40 PM Flag

    Seventy and Climbing!!

    BBK broke through that cloud of 70 today
    and is moving higher and higher. Somebody
    get the telescope!

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    • You may be right about 7x. Who would have thought
      three years ago that we would be seeing 4x or higher.
      History shows us that excess is inevitable, so premiums
      could go much higher. So why the worry?
      This is like
      a giant ponzi scheme. Everyone makes tons of money
      until the game ends, and the people left holding the
      stock lose their asses. I'm holding and worrying that
      the bubble will burst on me.
      Stock- I agree that
      there is no financial reason for the FED to stop these
      mergers. But Washington doesn't need a reason to change
      course. Reason? Washington? Come on.

    • I worry about the future of BBK.

      The
      sharks are swimming. Someone is going to throw them a
      bone to big to let go.

      Stock: I agree with your
      thought about the final price for CF. However, thats a
      one day drop for suntrust. Give it a month, and it
      will come back up (maybe even sooner). It was a good
      deal for CF shareholders in the short run. I keep
      saying these banks ought to stick it out longer. some
      day it will be 7x book value instead of 5!

      Dr.
      JunJun

    • I would be shocked if the Fed said Boo! on any of
      these mergers. They want consolidation in mid ranks to
      streamline system and strengthen balance sheets. Economics
      of most mergers are compelling.

      Maybe not so
      on the STI CF merger. Those of you counting your
      multiples on BBK and others - check out the final (at least
      today's) value on the latest and greatest merger. Ain't so
      hot when looking at real return to CF holders. I mean
      compared to announced price, etc. Still a good jump - but
      not what it appeared to be originally. Maybe time
      will improve...

      I agree that FV is it for big
      move for BBK. Can they afford to "fill-in" with Y2K
      issues on any merger (all will have this issue), I don't
      know. They're pretty sharp.

      Tune in next week..

    • Given the events of today, I would say you are
      probably right on target. If BBK wants any significant
      presence at all in Va then FVB is the only choice...then
      Maryland next. I had held out hope for a BBK/CF merger of
      equals. So much for that thought.

    • The most likely scenario is that the new STI/CF
      would want CCB. They are in the same mold and have the
      same culture. After all CCB is strong in both NC and
      SC, making a very good union. CCB is up 3 1/2
      today... those people obviously feel the same
      way.

      Now, BBT MUST buy FVB to stay viable in VA/MD. It
      ain't no joke now. Best buy FVB (also up alot
      today).

      Then start looking at two of those MD banks... PBKS
      and MRBK. I'm in!

    • Stock and Doc- I agree that TODAY the right
      strategy is to hold. Where else would I put my retirement
      funds? Interest rates and loan loss provisions in that
      order will spell the end of this incredible bull market
      in bank stocks. God I hope I can spot the changes up
      front.

      One other possible turning point would be a change in
      regulator appetite for big mergers. FED acceptance of these
      deals has fueled them. IF and when the suits get scared
      by consolidation, the premiums could fall
      dramatically. Can you imagine the effect on the market if FED
      would not allow the NB/BA merger?

    • My advice:

      Always take some of your
      profits. Always.

      But hold the rest. Someone is
      going to pay big bucks for this quality bank. And I
      mean BIG Bucks!!!!!!!!!!

      BBK is doing good.
      Branches are serving their customers. They moved into
      Virginia, and we have not heard the first public outcry
      over the way they service customers, unlike FUNB and
      others. So far so good. But they need a bigger presence
      in VA, and Maryland to keep the foothold.

      Dr.
      JunJun

    • Readum:

      I guess you were at BBK. Ask your
      friends there for what the level of tension is. Not
      insider stuff, just pressure on the troops, etc. type of
      stuff. That may help. Also, check BBK's loan lost
      reserve increases. Are they accelerating, etc.

      But
      first and formost, follow interest rates and bail if
      they uptick. I realize that this particular advice
      (guess??) isn't unique, but if I'm right and down turn in
      the economy would hurt BBK and all the other banks
      more than most realize, this will turn out to be good
      advice. Of course, as a stock picker, I make a good
      plumbing contractor!

      In the meantime, posibility
      of being bought will keep price higher than it ought
      to be. Maybe somebody else has a feel for the floor
      that puts on BBK. But I do wonder - 25-26 times laging
      earnings?? How long can it last? I hope a long time! I sold
      some at 70, but I've kept most. I guess I'm in it with
      you.

    • I got in pretty heavy via UCB and am pleased with
      my move. I sold about half @67 and don't know what
      to do about the rest. Excellent bank but I can't see
      much more than 38 after the split for the next six
      months to a year unless someone buys them out.

    • I'm in a quandary. I believe stockboy is right on
      his concerns. Loan officers will talk credit quality
      but that is just to get their loans through the
      lending committee. Incentive plans do not immediately
      reward good credit but do reward loan making. Good point
      on the ages of these people too. A lot of former
      bankers like myself (37) have been downsized out of the
      industry leaving the new college grads that somehow think
      it will be different next time
      around.

      Problem is, as I've told doc, is that I own a bunch of
      BBK and it has provided me most of my worth. I would
      die if I bailed on it now and a buyout came at a 20%
      premium. What to do? What to do?

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BBT
38.05-0.11(-0.29%)Sep 15 4:01 PMEDT

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