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BB&T Corporation Message Board

  • farfromthebeltway farfromthebeltway Aug 3, 2000 3:52 PM Flag

    Last post.

    Some minor points I'd like to throw out before
    leaving you all to your own:

    1. I never called
    this stock a "dog," nor implied such. The gist of my
    posts was against senseless cheerleading. By the spring
    of 1999 it had become reasonably clear to all
    concerned that interest rates were on their up and would
    likely to continue in that direction for quite a while.
    From that moment on then, it was deceptive or
    self-delusional to cheerlead this stock. Only in recent weeks has
    it has become reasonably likely that the FOMC might
    be finished raising rates for a while, and
    therefore, considering other factors as well, only now might
    any cheerleading--with caveats--be the honest,
    non-delusional thing to do.

    2. Graham's method has worked
    well during and immediately after prolongued market
    slumps, as it did in the 1970s and early 1980s. But no
    one method is the best or is simply sufficient
    always. Narrow dogma doesn't work well for long. The
    current bull market has been much more rewarding for
    other investment methods or styles. Remember this good
    old rule: "Good old rules don't always
    apply."

    3. Old minds need to accept that they just might be
    far out of touch sometimes. Let me give you this
    personal example about an investment advisor I worked with
    at a bank before we both retired. In our daily
    chitchat, he loved to talk about two things: First, his
    plans to finance a dry-cleaning shop adjacent to the
    new highrise office complex which had just opened
    across the street. He knew the offices would be staffed
    mostly by hightech "white-collar" professionals who, he
    thought, would make a great upscale market for crisp
    starched white shirts fresh from a convenient location;
    crisp white starched shirts such as he wore. Second, he
    never tired of complaining about the "hippies" or
    "young tramps" who in increasing numbers gathered at the
    street and the plaza which he crossed every business day
    during lunch. "Society's wasted by-product" he called
    them . . . Only, about three years later, after his
    drycleaning shop failed, did he tell me that the never
    realized that those "hippies" were in fact the hightech
    professionals he had hoped would be the main market for his new
    business. His august mind had missed adequately noting the
    trend toward "casual dress" at even the highest
    corporate levels. Unfortunately, his investment advice
    followed a similar pattern. He's a swell guy, we still
    golf together, but even he agrees that much of the
    world, including the market, has left him behind.

 
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