I am of the opinion that phase III results failed and here is why. I look at corporate body language. Usually if results are good you schedule a special conference call to discuss top line results as men and women are in need of boasting their greatness for having succeeded, fielding all calls on phase III results only. The fact both financials and phase III are put together in what is a 45 minute conference call usually means there is nothing to talk about in phase III hence fallback on financials and future hope of other things. This is the way I see it so you can disagree.
just my honest opinion of course
I tend to agree with you that the Phase III trial results are not so great. All that #$%$-chat in today's press release about the other ongoing trials looks like an attempt to divert attention from the Phase III trials, which are the only ones that matter at this point.
When news is usually bad people will shy away from the public spotlight using a variety of excuses.
Respect would have required conference call to discuss financials first with full confidence of phase III results.
Instead you get, here are your financials, top results later, and we will talk about it later.
Sure sounds like there is no confidence in results.
Couple this with no insider buying.
Just my opinion.
On the other hand, if you know the AF article is out there and has caused a furor, and you still need to time to properly analyze and assemble your topline data, you postpone the call and consolidate them because you know you can't have the call and not comment because every question will be about the PIII and you need the full data to respond effectively. You may be right but I hope not.
I think today's drop is options expiration related - July calls retained a high premium until a few days ago and the market is making option sellers sweat. If correct it will go back up to mid 5's on Monday.
That is possible but I am of the belief they don't have the top line data yet. In their press release it says they will release top line results later this quarter. To me that means Aug or Sept, not this month. If it was this month I think it would have said this month. When the FDA responded to their last NDA request with a non-approval, they did not sit on that news long. I think they would run into legal trouble if they were to sit on knowledge of bad Phase III results very long.
I just went back and reread the release. It says there will be a conference call after they release top line data, not a combined call where they release data and have an earnings call. I bet they decided to not have an earnings call today because all the questions would surely revolve around their Phase III trials. If they don't have any data to release yet then the call would be pretty much useless.