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JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • rlemert rlemert Jun 16, 2008 4:04 PM Flag

    Will, what's your take??

    think this trend will continue or stop in the middle of the week when the options are off the table?? by the way, i'm sure glad i bought APWR at 23 and change!! thx for the help buddy!!

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    • Will, another classic analysis, thank you. Too bad that you posted this last night, or else i won't sell most of shares yesterday. but I won't blame myself on taking a 9% gain in 2 days I got in at around $18.90. And I sold rest of my shares today at $21.80. Like you said, I am expecting some pullback after today's crazy rally, but i still bought some shares back at $21.5 just that I won't punch myself if JASO keep going up. more input from you today will be very helpful. thanks ahead. will

    • Got an hour? lol

      I'm looking for directional staying power above 21.27 (20 day ma). Although today was a sensational one-day event, we still haven't managed to break the upper descending channel line of the hourly bars that began on May 23rd. Momentum says we pullback tomorrow about 50 cents a share, although a test and break above 21.27 could signal an impending monster rally. If not in, (and as I said over last two weeks) you should have been nibbling, especially when we were at 18.63. Short interest has increased 55% since May however the SIR has only increased from 0.60 to 0.80. meaning any powerful short cover rally will be muted at today's normal level of trading volume.

      Next week is a critical test for JASO. Will all the money that has been coming off the sidelines over last week, go back to sidelines as weekly mometum drag of over 4.00 per share rears its ugly head on Monday? THe hourly says pullback and the weekly will too by Monday.

      Tomorrow is a critical time in very short run. We picked up a strong bullish candlestick pattern toda, but we wait to see how tomorrow's inflationary data pans out. Wednesday we see petroleum data which doesn't concern me for JASO. As I said, no short term correlations exist.

      Date Shares Short(millions) Short Interest Ratio
      6/1/2008 7.37 0.80
      5/15/2008 4.80 0.60
      5/1/2008 5.27 0.90
      4/15/2008 4.90 0.70
      4/1/2008 5.86 1.10
      3/15/2008 5.36 0.60
      3/1/2008 6.67 1.00
      2/15/2008 7.18 0.70
      2/1/2008 2.26 1.20
      1/15/2008 1.95 0.60

      The option's pits are becoming more bullish over time as the the put/call ratio has dropped from 0.75 to 0.63 in last couple weeks. This is understandable if you saw the weekly momentum divergence over last couple weeks too.

      Date Call OI Put OI
      6/16 45,954 31,189
      6/13 45,236 30,658
      6/12 44,880 30,584
      6/11 44,169 30,465
      6/10 43,545 31,205
      6/9 43,501 31,328
      6/6 43,241 31,027
      6/5 43,112 30,884
      6/4 42,481 30,915
      6/3 42,235 30,552
      6/2 41,880 30,440
      5/30 41,464 29,552
      5/29 36,836 27,915
      5/28 35,741 25,449
      5/27 34,529 23,854
      5/23 34,392 23,294
      5/22 32,576 22,928
      5/21 32,013 21,628
      5/20 30,545 20,435
      5/19 24,958 15,303


      Inflationary data is on the docket for Tuesday, with the May producer price index (PPI) expected to rise to 1.0% from April's 0.2% reading. The Core PPI for May is seen moderating to a reading of 0.2% from April's 0.4%. Housing starts and building permits for May are also slated for release, as well as capacity utilization and industrial production.

      On the earnings front, Best Buy (BBY) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are scheduled to report earnings ahead of the opening bell on Tuesday.


      The weekly U.S. petroleum supplies report is the lone report arriving on Wednesday.


      Initial jobless claims for the week of June 14 will arrive, followed by May's leading economic indicators and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index.


      There are no economic reports scheduled for release on Friday. Finally, Winnebago (WGO) is the lone company on the docket for earnings reports.

      fwiw;Not selling a share.


    • CHEERS!!

    • EXPECT!

    • you need to look at fundamentals pal
      jaso just got an upgrade--

8.25+0.02(+0.24%)Feb 10 4:00 PMEST