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First Niagara Financial Group Inc. Message Board

  • archieroo3 archieroo3 Dec 11, 2012 11:14 AM Flag


    Well, RSI on daily chart has risen through the 50 line. That is bullish for at least the short to intermediate term. Longer term chart is bullish too i.e., recently completed a falling wedge pattern that lasted 2+ years (time since merger news linked?). Falling wedges come to an apex and then rise thereafter, 80% of the time. The other 20% of the time, the rise precedes a fall to a lower low.

    I'm stayin in until RSI reaches 70 or 40, whichever comes first.

    DISCLOSURE: I've been trading four 5,000 share positions on long side since last rally to 10.5 (this spring). I have been able reduce my cost basis to about 7.75 = breakeven. I plan to continue trading this stock over next few years on the long side. Because of my long side bias and the 4% dividend, I keep a core position (50%) in this stock approximately 90% of the time.


    Downside Risk = ~7 based on fundamental valuation e.g., 1.25 TBV.

    Upside Reward (longer term, say 3 to 5 years) = 11 to 12 based on increases in both TBV and valuation ratio.

    Risk/Reward @~8 = 4 to 1.

    My 5 year goal at start was to reduce my cost basis to zero on 20,000 shares via trades and dividends. Despite great headwinds over past 9 months I am 30% of way to my goal. Yesterday I sold a 5,000 position at 7.77 that I has bought not long ago at 7.27. My rule of thumb has been to sell/buy 1 or 2 positions on every increase/decrease in price of 50 cents.

    Happy Trading/Investing.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Good plan; the only way to make money on this stock is trading it's rolls; you can't even sell covered calls as the premiums are ridiculous (i.e. the option mkt knows this company is dead money for now)...

    • Today = 3rd day for price to penetrate an expanding upper bollinger (daily) = breakout (e.g., bollinger "walk"). This is another bullish sign for the short/intermediate term.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to archieroo3
      • Well, I sold a chunk @~7.90 after pulling back from 7.98. Set a limit buy @7.52. Low only reached 7.56. Watched price do a tweezer bottom on 20dma w rsi holding 50 = bullish re-entry signal. Got back in at low 7.60s. High today = 7.92. Upper bollinger only pennies away but RSI says we have room to run so I',m expecting another bollinger walk.

        Tail winds are good. Market is flying and banking sector as a whole is doing very good now - see charts for KRE and $bkxx.

        Santa Claus rally doesn't start for another week.

        This run for fnfg looks like it will top out before the SC rally ends. In fact, I'd be surprised to see it go beyond end of this week. rsi = 63.5 and rising on 60 min chart and could easily reach and leave the 70+ zone by then. (Of course, we could see a small pull-back followed by yet another week-long rally into 70+.)

        In any event, I have a sell order in @~8.20 = 78% RET of prior falling wedge = 200dma.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

10.69-0.09(-0.83%)Oct 8 4:00 PMEDT