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Fossil Group, Inc. Message Board

  • Quickbuy Quickbuy Jan 27, 2000 9:16 AM Flag

    My theory

    The typical investor in FOSL was a momentum
    player buying for the 50+% EPS growth rate, FOSL had a
    nice run for almost two years and then a hint of
    dropdown in the growth (which was bound to happen no co.
    can grow at that prior rate) scared tham all
    away....Now we are slowly (way too slowly :)) gaining a base
    of value investors who see a company with a solid
    20% long term gorwth rate and lots of updise
    potential...However, IMO, investors are waiting to see 4Q # to get e
    better grip on how the compnay will grow forward, now
    that the rapid growth is behind them. We all know FOSL
    had a blow out Q4 and will probably experience the
    same benefit of last year the retailers have to refill
    underestimated orders, which will fuel a storng Q1, I believe
    the 20% EPS growth is easilt sustainable and
    eventually this stock should settle down in the 30s.
    Comments welcome QB

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    • Very astute reasoning. I think you hit the nail
      on the head. FOSL has great value right
      though, and I think the intelligent investor will
      recognize that soon. At these
      prices, much more than the
      20% growth is acheivable for the buy and hold guy.
      FOSL is here to stay, no doubt. I see FOSL watches
      gaining popularity still.

      I love my Big Tic. I've
      bought two now, and will buy more very soon!

    • you can't expect the blowout earnings of the
      past. The estimates have caught up to FOSL's potential
      but you can expect them to beat their current
      estimates by a safe amount. We all know FOSL had a great
      Q4. Hang in there. FOSL WILL see better days.

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