Nice to hear from you. Yes, I do like Fossil, thanks for bringing it up. Today's volume indicates broad interest, and a rejection of the sub-16 level, imo. Most of the trades were at 16.25, nothing too wild, no weird accumulation and dumping, just steady trading. Fossil's balance sheet looks great, very clean, nice cash flow, good earnings, fine earnings growth projected. I regard their soft-pawed foray into apparel as having little downside risk. The weak euro may hurt sales in Europe, and any damage that may result from US retailers cutting back on order for Fossil's products is minimized by its attractive share price which I could call a very healthy margin of safety. The fear is overdone, imho. To my knowledge, Fossil periodically has a similar relationship of earnings to growth to share price---but never this good. And what's more, every year, the darn p/e ratio doubles off the lows, and I assure you, that ratio is pretty low right now, p/e=7.3 for 2000, and p/e=6 for next years earnings which is the lowest p/e for this stock in its history, as I recall from an S&P report. Needless to say, I took a good sized swing today
I cannot imagine this company going any lower than $16. I figured it was a guaranteed homerun at $17. This company is simple earning money and growing with the regularity of an olympians heartbeat. I think the possibility of a recession is presently incorporated in Fossil's share price. Baring another great depression, this company is a guaranteed winner at these prices.
---(I cannot imagine this company going any lower than $16. ) -- I thought that with ANF. it dropped to $8.00 it had $2.00 in cash (no debt) per share, a historical growth rate of 70% forwardlooking growth of 27% A PE for 2000 of like 5 but if you had subtracted the cash, it was more like 3.5. I had already backed up the truck at $13 with margin (ugh) but I should have been parked at $8 but I had no money and was sweating margin call and sweating selling for a loss!! I only wish we would see it with Fossil!
If you subtract the $3.00 in cash for each share. You are really paying $13.00 per share for a forward looking PE for this year of 6.5, which, I think is a better way to value it. That $3.00 could be used to buy back FOSL shares if management has nothing better to do with the money.