As a wannabe technican, my analysis is FOSL will stay above $20 and trade to $32. I would be relly surprised to see under $20. I was at the mall the other day, all watch shoppers were shopping for FOSL, grear brand equity!!
They are not totally dependent upon watches. The handbags are huge items, so are the back-packs that they sell for back-to-school, etc. I'm wearing a Fossil belt right now. I'm suprised they went below $20, too. Quit jinxing them :) They should be above $25 IMHO.
Of course, the problem with huge support is that it becomes huge resistance when support is broken. That and, in a market downtrend, support levels are less reliable and resistance is more reliable. Question of the season is whether we are in a downtrend or an uptrend.
But, I'm basically a fundamentals guy who dabbles in technical analysis.