I wonder how much Cooper's law firm Jones Day is making off this whole bizarre merger and litigation. They have a big presence in India, and I wonder if Jones Day's presence there somehow led to the communications leading to this merger. Also, it looks like Apollo can just get out of the deal by saying the financing never materialized despite good-faith efforts by Apollo. I assume some lenders would just say the union and Chinese joint venture mess, followed by the Jones Day lawsuit (with all its gratuitous character assassination of Apollo), caused them to not want to lend for this merger. It's actually very simple, and that's why the stock price is so low (because there are probably many ways for Apollo to get out of this). Also, I wonder how cooperative or purposely uncooperative the Jones Day people were when Apollo was trying to get information. For example, from the tone of the lawsuit, I can imagine Cooper responding, "Hey, you assumed ALL those risks, so tough: we're not helping you, and we're not giving you that information. You're on your own." Nevertheless, this stock should be higher because other tire companies (like Goodyear) are way up since June, so you'd think Cooper should be higher just on its own.
1. Lenders will lend on this deal because the takeover price is reasonable.
2. An example is Smithfield Foods had massively higher debt issues and it went through like a hot knife through butter.
3. Cooper is providing the information.
4. Unions are unions and nowhere in the world are they more aware of that fact than in India.
My view is CTB is under priced at $35 by about $3 to $5 when compared to ANY of the 10 largest tire companies in the world, based on balance sheet numbers and profitability. In fact, since CTB is a USA company, I would bet this company will benefit substantially from lower energy prices right here in USA.
As to Apollo bringing this deal to fruition, no idea, but I will NOT vote for anything less than $35 because I think there are better offers on the sidelines waiting for deadlines in this agreement to pass.