On 4/28 (msg 718) you advised Albany plant at capacity and all tires sold. In recent messages you advise Albany plant has cut back and tires are in warehouses. I can't reconcile your comments.
I can, however, tell you that the stock market is 6 to 12 months ahead of what's happening. In August of 1990 at beginning of recession CTB bottomed at 6.25. It rallied about 30% in September, then retested the low in October. Two months later it has rallied about 100% to 12 and by year-end 1991 had doubled again to over 26.
March 2000 CTB bottomed at 9.50, then rallied to about 14 in April- May. It is now retesting that low. I would be amazed at a quadruple to 38 by year-end 2001 but expect a price approaching a triple.
The time to buy is when the bad news is in the market.
"...the time to buy is when the bad news is in the market..."
I totally agree. Unfortunately, it's a little difficult to determine when that point arrives.
But what we are seeing in the economy now is a long way from bad news. Today there are only harbingers of bad news seeping slowly into the picture.
You'll know when bad news is here because there won't be any more talk of "I'm in it for the long haul". There will come a time when people will never want to hear about the stock market again.
A bunch of gamblers have stubbed their toes this year and they're crying "blood in the streets". Well, when their jugular veins get slashed somewhere down the road then they'll find out what a real bear market looks like.
What we've seen so far is like having a picnic in the park and being upset about a couple of dandelions sprouting along the path. Reality will hit when the big bear comes along, eats your lunch, and then defecates in your picnic basket.