Walter Investment Management Corp. Message Board
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SAVED FOR FUTURE REFERENCE (price/volume updated)
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Saved for future reference.
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Background: also see price history below.
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In a February post (since deleted) the poster said "The truth is that this ticker will not break 15 to the upside for a long long time"
Then under the title, "Meltdown and Why Hold" dated 3/26 he posted:
"This stock closed on Mar.17th @ 16.72 and currently @ 15.63 in an extremely fragile market (BTW, that is two divs.
assuming .50{we shall see}). I have to wonder where stops are placed and my best guess is 15.00 . Most owners of the stock seem to believe this is a safe yield and it may be , however , how man[y] div. adjustments via price depreciation are you willing to sustain? We've already seen the mmajority of
the amreit sector divs. cut at an alarming rate . Is there a logical reason to hold a subprime mortgage service company operating in an area of the country
that has shown zero recovery?
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Class commented on how the sole focus on short-term price movements caused poster to make several very bold and emphatic predictions. He was certain he knew the will of the market. He refuted any differing view and was in fact degratory about them.
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No one can predict short-term price movements - regardless of how savvy or informed one may believe oneself to be.
Short-term focus will sooner or later cause a near total loss of perspective. And that is the main reason why study after study shows that speculators ALWAYS end up broke ala Jesse Livermore.
Most valuable lesson an investor can ever learn.
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SAVE. SAVE.
29-Mar-10 113,572 16.06
26-Mar-10 154,600 15.57
25-Mar-10 82,200 15.80
24-Mar-10 124,200 16.03
23-Mar-10 94,400 16.55
22-Mar-10 126,000 16.25
19-Mar-10 225,100 16.12
18-Mar-10 177,700 16.55
17-Mar-10 324,100 16.72
16-Mar-10 127,700 16.40
15-Mar-10 87,100 16.10
12-Mar-10 152,200 16.03
11-Mar-10 1,116,700 16.20
10-Mar-10 243,200 15.87
9-Mar-10 223,500 15.57
8-Mar-10 161,300 15.71
5-Mar-10 223,500 15.60
4-Mar-10 52,400 14.92
3-Mar-10 73,500 14.71
2-Mar-10 145,000 14.98
1-Mar-10 196,200 14.75
26-Feb-10 125,600 14.48
25-Feb-10 101,700 14.41
24-Feb-10 115,700 14.29
23-Feb-10 137,800 14.28
22-Feb-10 110,100 14.24
19-Feb-10 127,600 14.02-
thanks for all the info but you take a lot of space on this board and use it for your diatribes against another bloated ego....
- 1 Reply to nguphn
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This thread is intended only for 3 classes in special situation investing and is for reference only about how people can let emotions run way with them. If that certain poster would not get his posts erased, it would be unneccessary.
Otherwise, I entirely agree with you. I apologize that it upsets you.
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Posted March 26 under the title "Meltdown why hold?"
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"we can now discuss WAC without company intervention [paranoia heuristic?].
This stock closed on Mar.17th @ 16.72 and currently @ 15.63 in an extremely fragile market (BTW, that is two div[idend]s. assuming .50 {we shall see}).
I have to wonder where stops are placed and my best guess is 15.00.
Most owners of the stock seem to believe this is a safe yield and it may be, however, how man div[idend]. adjustments via price depreciation are you willing to sustain?
We've already seen the mmajority[sic] of the amreit sector div[idend]s cut at an alarming rate.
Is there a logical reason to hold a subprime mortgage service company operating in an area of the country
that has shown zero recovery?
Just something to think about before the weekend."
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Note: Price went up immediately after this post. [Runaway consistency heuritic]- 2 Replies to iambenjamingraham
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Our poster on March 25th said:
"Seriously , isn't funny how you can just sense when a stock has ended it's run .
Why ? Lack of sponsorship , moving averages , bad news coming......who knows ?
If the market goes south, and it will at the very least correct , you can make a lot of money going
against a subprime mortgage service company."
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Apparently his "sensors" were still not working right. Again and again we find examples of people who think they can forecast the market and fail to do so. They may think they are logical, but it's all emotions. Notice how sure he is the market will go down and yet it didn't happen. -
To understand the irrationality of stock prices, imagine that you and Mr Market are partners in a private business. Each day without fail, Mr Market quotes a price at which he is willing to either buy your interest or sell you his. The business that you both own is fortunate to have stable economic characteristics, but Mr Market's quotes are anything but. For you see, Mr Market is emotionally unstable. Some days, Mr Market is cheerful and can only see brighter days ahead. On these days, he quotes a very high price for shares in your business. At other times, Mr Market is discouraged and seeing nothing but trouble ahead, and quotes a very low price for your shares in the business.
"Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic. He does not mind being snubbed. If Mr Market's quotes are ignored, he will be back again tomorrow with a new quote. I have repeatedly warned my students that it is Mr Market's pocketbook, not his wisdom that is useful. If Mr Market shows up in a foolish mood, you are free to ignore him or take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence.
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A principle of investing in which an investor only purchases securities when the market price is significantly below its intrinsic value. In other words, when market price is significantly below your estimation of the intrinsic value, the difference is the margin of safety. This difference allows an investment to be made with minimal downside risk.
The term was popularized by me (known "the father of value investing") and my followers, most notably Warren Buffett. Margin of safety doesn't guarantee a successful investment, but it does provide room for error in an analyst's judgment. Determining a company's "true" worth (its intrinsic value) is highly subjective. Each investor has a different way of calculating intrinsic value which may or may not be correct. Plus, it's notoriously difficult to predict a company's earnings. Margin of safety provides a cushion against errors in calculation. -
http://www.cornercap.com/library/Comment...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/...
http://www.businessweek.com/archives/199...
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-ana...
Is the market a weighing machine or a voting machine?
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