BMO"Buy weakness. $36 target. CML=$250 mill/yr sales. Launch review sees $3 mill Q1 vs $1 mill est" BUY
BMO on ARIA "CML recurring incremental $250 mill/yr sales? Launch review suggests $3 mill Q1 sales vs $1 mill ests. Investors should buy weakness ahead of multiple catlysts. $36 target"
Stock closed today $19.80
Thursday, February 7, 2013
BMO Capital Markets
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Outperform)
Addressing Weakness in ARIA Shares, Launch on Track
Flash: We have a significant amount of inbound inquiry regarding weakness in ARIA shares and what might be driving it today. We've had opportunity to speak with ARIA directly, and the company isn't aware of an event or an impending event that would explain the weakness. In particular, there is no update on launch progress for ICLUSIG, regulatory progress in Europe, or data update on AP26113. At present, the primary focus of investor interest remains on the ICLUSIG launch with four full weeks of prescription data reported by IMS Health. While we are precluded from sharing specific detail of IMS prescription data, we would note that the cumulative total over four weeks is identical to the first month of Tasigna TRx's, and we believe that the capture rate is
This is higher than Rachel McMinn's December update from Merrill where she stated
"We are lowering our ‘13-‘15 Iclusig est to $27M, $85M and $198M. Our new est
are based on a conservative scenario in which Iclusig TRx are 25% lower than the
initial Tasigna launch vs. to our prior assumption that uptake would be an average
of Tasigna and Sprycel"
It seems Iclusig might be doing better than the street anticipated