The EPIC trial has been terminated last yesterday. You will hear the news today...
I don't believe that the FDA will revoke the Iclusig (Ponatinib) label for intolerant/resistant CML patients with the T315I mutation and for Ph+ve ALL patients. I think they will only update the currently existent black box warning. Patients from these indications will continue to receive the drug, however, this market is too narrow. We are talking about a few hundred patients globally.
What happened in the last three days of the week, since the time Ariad announced the clinical hold on current clinical trials of Ponatinib, is that the story of Ponatinib as a first line drug for CML patients got destroyed. This is where the big money was! If Ariad had a chance of selling Ponatinib for newly diagnosed CML patients it would be a multi-billion dollar company, getting a huge market share from Novartis (selling Imatinib which is currently used for front line CML treatment). That was the purpose of the EPIC study and this is why the market capitalization or Ariad was north of $4B until Tuesday. This story, unfortunately, is no longer on the table. The EPIC trial has now been terminated.
This is what the market has been discounting with the dramatic fall of -80%. The fact that the market for Ponatinib has narrowed so much that the company's survival is now at stake. Ariad will struggle through for a few more months trying to get some meaningful data from the other drugs in it's pipeline. In the meantime they will, of course, restructure and fire most employees in an effort to preserve cash. If they succeed they have a future. If not, I see the stock price around the $1 range in 2014 and in the worst case scenario Ariad could go bankrupt. I don't think the latter is very possible, based on the long history of the company, however, if the company is to survive they will have to seek cash from shareholders next year, diluting them to oblivion.
Good luck to all ARIAD shareholders today.
why stop it? do the 30 and 15 mg doses. This just stinks. shows you have inside info somewhere. I blame management for that bs activity. They should be hung for letting news out before the market knows.
If this guy knew this information before market opened, you know many others knew about it also. JP Morgan analyst scammed retail buyers so their investment banking clients could dump. So yes, you got screwed.
EVERYONE knew this information before the market opened, including you my friend.
It was announced well before the market opened.
And patients started getting phone calls from their doctors from yesterday telling them about the termination of the study. I assume Ariad must have send letters to doctors well before yesterday.
What the hell was this company thinking? They doubled their office space in Boston this past summer. They had to have known about the possibility of label restriction. Doctors shouldn't run companies.
I think a couple people owe you an apology on here...this definitely wasn't a "aria going to zero" scare tactic by a short ...real news here people , unfortunately this doesn't bode well for the stock...now I know why management kept close-lipped