I fist saw the stock fall the very first day at it dropped from $5.40 range and that morning fell to $4 after 4 or 5 trade stops. Then, it moved up through the day from $4 to a little over $6 and then closing around $5.80. I felt bad about missing out. Then, I followed the stock at it fell from that $5.80 to $4.04 over a few days. Two days ago, I could have bought at $4.04 and didn't.
The stock then jumped to $4.50 and I was devastated. I swore and used your name for not letting me buy it. But then this morning, I see it crashed to $2.70. And, I realized you saved me from certain death.
Thank you God.
That was exactly what I did as I cursed the devil for making me Greedy and buying ARIA @ $4.10 then selling at $4.48 with 50K share buy-In. I was scared all of my stocks will go down and I sold out EVERYTHING due to I the Gov't Shutdown and Obama Care that I thought would Happen. When it Didn't happen and next day the ARIA went to $4.50 I stated to myself that it will go to $5 and curse God for NOT getting me in on the Gravy Train Ride to Riches $$$. Then I woke Up to a $2.65 and a -40% Plunge I NOW SAYTHE SERENITY PRAYER EVERY DAY TO "ACCEPT THE THINGS I CAN NOT CHANGE AND THE WISDOM TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE" well as we ALL Know that The Devil GREEDY is Coming Out of Me AGAIN and I Can NOT STOP HIM FROM GETTING ME TO BUY ARIA IN ON MONDAY Morning WITH A 50% GAIN That I am dreaming that I will Get so I can get "Rich Quick" as I am Lazy and Only make $62.00 an hour which I can make over a Thousand dollars a day with a $100,000 buying power.
The demise of ARIA looks orchestrated. When the bad news came out, they had to have known the trails would have to be shuttered, yet they said just days ago that the trials would continue with tweeking and no new participants. All of a sudden, everything stops? I realize the market is mostly a fixed game, but this one seems overly blatant to me.
There are various clinical going on at Ariad. The one announced on 10/09 is the 'PAGE" trial, in which they stop receiving new patient, and continue the existing patients with the reduced doses. The one announced today is a different clinical trial named "EPIC" for comparing ponatinib vs. imatinib. I don't think Ariad's management has mis-communicated on anything, in fact they're very up-front about what going on at the company.
BTW, it's not that all of a sudden everything stops as you stated. There are tons of works going at Ariad; if you simply visit their website, look at the page under Research & Development - Pineline, you will see a full list of the product under development. And for a full list of existing clinical trials, visit the government website clinicaltrials(DOT)org and search for ARIAD. Last time I checked there are about 8 trials. Beside that Arias has a strong partnership with Merck and has a good working relationship with MD Anderson (most their clinical trials are being conducted at MD Anderson). Also take a look at their webpage under About - Company Leadership, you will find more than a dozen of MD/PhD from UK with many years of experience in their field (a very strong leadership) that's why ARID have been in this business for more than 20 years.
I think the market way over-reacted with the new release today. Being traded at this level with a market cap of only $494mil, while they have over $350mil cash on hand and with a small amount of debt (around $10mil), the market seemed to wrongly assume that Iclusig would be pull out of the market, there was nothing else going on under development, and Ariad was about to bankrupt. It will take a few weeks for investors to digest all the news, once they fully understand going on, I think the stock price will go back to $5 - $6 trading range.
Sentiment: Strong Buy