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Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • gregorio_allegri gregorio_allegri Oct 30, 2013 7:07 PM Flag

    Trading in a mine field can be very profitable

    Just realized that those shares I bought at $2.75 were up over 50% day before yesterday. Despite buying a few 1000 shares at $18, I could be up $100k in my trading account with what would have been an unthinkably low price a couple of weeks ago in a very short time with my new average share price. There is no way I could have made this kind of money at the old price. This is nuts. Just crazy. I see our new hedge fund owner stopped just short of the 15% takeover threshold (6.22 + 6.22 + 2.5 = 14.99%) I assume the flat-lining in pps we see in the afternoon is another major player buying large amounts with a computer perhaps 100 shares at a time ( I wasn't actually watching)... Amazing how it can control the price while buying large. I see the IBB was down big and the chart hints it goes down more...

    Don't know how all this will turn out, but it's an adventure, and I suspect a rabbit gets pulled out of the hat sooner or later.... All I expect from the next conference call is a time line for the new plan and a cash burn rate... In any case this is no dead cat, just a somewhat wounded one. Perhaps our new friend is dreaming of another Imclone (from FDA rejection to 6.2 billion dollar sale.)
    in ADHD, gambling away

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    • yeah, I was stupid to buy 5K shares at 20 but it's over with. I did buy some more to average down to 18's. Not sure if I'm tossing good money after bad. I'm sure a lot of questions will be answered on nov. 5th.

      • 1 Reply to chevymalibu1966
      • Hang in there brother. Timing now is everything. Expect a wild ride. Patience and a strategy that takes into account surprises (wait for a price so low it seems ridiculous, one that you never expected to see.) This will be the first time in a long time that I have more trading shares than core shares. Good after the bad is a possibility, but the risk reward ratio right now is too good for me to pass up. Looking for $2.50 (or lower pleeeeeeeeease) on a retest of lows with no new substantive news... I may not get it, but that is the way the cookie crumbles. Usually goes down after HB has a conference call, so...


    • The New Friend Denner recently(in July changed board of directors of Vivus). Vivus stocks then went down from $15 in July to $9.50 Today. Sarissa also changed BD in ASTX and ASTX was sold for only 27% premium, Sarissa tried to pump up but it didn't work.. Later Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ASTX) issued the following statement in response to further misleading claims made by Sarissa Capital in a press release issued earlier today:
      We are disappointed that Sarissa Capital continues to mislead Astex stockholders with information that is incomplete, taken out of context and does not provide full and accurate information to Astex stockholders.
      In a last-ditch attempt to unnecessarily delay and possibly derail the premium, all-cash transaction with Otsuka, earlier today Sarissa Capital issued a press release about a collaborators' compound, LEE011, a clinical-stage, potential cancer treatment that is being developed by Novartis. Consider these facts:
      The Astex Board of Directors Considered LEE011 in its Deliberations. The Astex Board carefully considered the potential benefit and risks of LEE011 as it made its determination that the premium, $8.50 per share all-cash transaction with Otsuka was in the best interests of all Astex stockholders.
      Astex has Repeatedly Discussed the Progress of LEE011. Astex publicly discussed LEE011 as recently as August 1, 2013 on the Company's second quarter earnings conference call, and provided an update on LEE011 in its investor corporate presentations.
      Interested Parties Had Knowledge of LEE011 During Diligence. The Otsuka transaction was the culmination of a comprehensive process to maximize value for all Astex stockholders. As part of that process, 33 pharmaceutical companies worldwide were contacted to gauge their interest in exploring a potential strategic transaction with Astex. Each of the parties who conducted diligence had access to confidential information related to the Company's pipeline....

      • 2 Replies to men92688
      • This guys is just outrageously lying and tweaking...

        The truth is:
        - Sarissa started acquiring 2% of VIVUS shares around the end of March/13 at the time the stock price was traded at around $10.50/share. A few months later in June/13 the stock reached the high at $15, and in July it drop down $12.30. Then in August it went back to $15 and since then the stock started falling down to $9.50/shr as of today. The price fluctuation has some thing to do with the ViVUS president resign and some other business related issue. it had nothing to with Sarissa with only 2% of the company stocks.

        - Sarissa's investment in ASTX was also a successful one (for purchased 5% ASTX shares under $3.50 and later acquired fo more than double that price by Otsuka). Of course Sarissa had a big fight with ASTX management for pressing them into asking for a much higher price than the $8.50 bid offerred by Otsuka.

        Sarissa had done everything they could to max out their investment in ASTX, so I'm highly confident that they're going to do the same thing with Ariad.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • LEE011 is Many Years from Approval. Despite Sarissa Capital's hype, LEE011 is still in Phase I/II clinical trials and Novartis has not informed Astex of any patients treated in Phase II trials, let alone in Phase III trials. While Novartis has recently made the decision to enter Phase III clinical trials with the experimental drug, LEE011 is still many years away from potential FDA approval and market entry. Furthermore, while Astex has confidence in LEE011, as we have referenced historically, there is high risk associated with the development of any drug, in particular one that is still only in Phase I clinical trials. Novartis' estimated completion date of this phase III trial is November of 2016.
        Sarissa Overstates the Potential, Long-Range Economic Impact LEE011 Might Have Upon Astex. The comparison to Pfizer's CDK4/6 inhibitor that Sarissa makes is expected, but is completely misleading and premature since Pfizer's program has generated robust Phase II data, unlike the LEE011 program. The potential economic benefits of LEE011 to Astex are relatively modest. The economic milestones for the first patient treated in Phase II and III clinical trials are minimal, with the potential for very modest royalty rates if the product is ever approved in the future.LEE011 has Minimal Impact on Astex' Valuation. Novartis has the exclusive right to develop and commercialize LEE011 with Astex having no right to co-develop or co-promote. Therefore, even if the clinical trials are successful, and market approval is eventually granted, the contribution to today's valuation is minimal.

    • Bought more myself, never sold my original amount, love to do the opposite of what Cramer and his stooges present as knowledge...Boo Hoo...Ariad is not over!

      • 1 Reply to dukesnyder20012002
      • Not sure if I'm going nuts or just having a blast. Sure explains the manic side of Cramer (ha)
        Perhaps I'm relieved I am not going to retire young as this feeds my gambling addiction (ha again)
        I have a bunch of cash still not committed. Kind of hoping the guys here predicting down are right one last time. Prepare for all eventualities, right? Then I would like a nice predictable channel to trade (but with all the questions here probably won't get one. I think the uncertainty is killing the pps as much as the cardio AEs. Some of the answers to the questions are likely to be surprises one way or the other.)

        Still have my core shares too. I am playing with the house's money there, so the IRS says I have big profits, but there sure is a lot lower $ figure associated with my non-trading account. Willing to wait quite a long time in that account as I don't need any income from this as of now and wasn't planning to sell for a while anyway.

        I thought I was playing chess, with a crushing control of the center and up a rook, but woke up and found myself at the same poker table I was at back in early 2009 with someone else raking in the chips. (a joke)
        ante up,

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