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Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • akickinthenutz akickinthenutz Jan 28, 2014 10:31 PM Flag

    Charts Don't Lie...RETRACEMANT in play

    This will be a classic rise & back fill to a 50 % retracement to 13$ range Buyout or NOT ...Regardless real shorts will cover to profit $$$ ...been long & short this puppy...Play along ...Buy , sell, short, cover...just don't get caught.... If you like the charts like me....See AFFX & ARAY .... Good luck to us all
    Remember ELN ?...they were bought out too

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    • any Props for calling ARAY ? ...AFFX next popper......
      Watch this rise out & carry the MDA for a while ..... Wake me up if thers a buyout ....other wise sleep through to 14 $ range ...

    • sentiment_stocks_trader sentiment_stocks_trader Jan 29, 2014 12:19 AM Flag

      Fits a previous post of mine (from 1/24) - listed below :)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sentiment_stocks_trader
      • sentiment_stocks_trader sentiment_stocks_trader Jan 29, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

        But... this stock is in “uncharted territory” so here’s my analysis:

If the buyout doesn’t happen right away, what comes next? $13.73

Here’s my reasoning:

1st 132% rise
10/31 - share price was $2.21 (stock low)
That price stayed on an almost straight line for the next 20 days to 11/21
From there, for the next 3 trading days, the stock rose 1.32% to a new high of $5.13 on 11/25
News: EMA was not taking Iclusig off their market

2nd .83% rise
From 11/25 to 1/21, the stock slunk down to $3.87 on 12/16
From the there, for the next 6 trading days, the stock rose .83% to a new high of $7.10 on 12/24
News: FDA was allowing Iclusig back on the market with revised labels
Note: the stock rose STRONGLY (43%) TWO days before the news hit - indicating some news may have leaked. The stock started rising on 12/18 and the news came out on 12/20.

3rd rise (the one we’re in)
From 12/24, the stock has risen and fallen with the help of all shorts between $7.10 to 6.60 on 1/21 (the real low was $6.46 on 1/8)
From there 1/22, the stock has risen from $6.60 to $9 (eod) today (36%) on a rumor - again, has the news leaked again?
Current rumor/news: Ariad has been approached by 3 big players - Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, and Shire and has been offered up to $20 per share for control of the company. News came out today that Ariad said they are “considering all options” after initially saying “no comment”.

If you take the two percentage rises of the previous fast ups and average it - it equals 108%. Without any confirmation of the buyout news or news that they are in discussion, I think the next rise will be to $13.73 (108% from $6.60) - and fast - early next week. Each rise up has taken only 3 to 6 trading days before the next plateau. The current rise up began on 1/22 - two trading days ago.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • it bounced nearly exactly off the 38.2 fib on my chart, I think we could done with retracing...

      Sentiment: Buy

    • oh pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee you wish

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • What's with the new ID?
      How many IDs do you have now?

      Member since: Jan 24, 2014

    • Yep ARIA's under its own steam now regardless of the buyout and that's what the shorts are scared of.

6.7326+0.0026(+0.04%)11:15 AMEDT