Disclaimer: none of us know what is going on behind the scenes as regards to a buyout or merger for Ariad. (And if they do, they should keep it to themselves). That does not mean that there aren't good reasons why a larger company would be interested, regardless of whether we personally do or do not "want" this to happen.
1. Pfizer: could redirect its huge investment in the lackluster launch of bosutinib by seamlessly replacing it with ponatinib and do the same for its recently failed NSCLC candidate, while strengthening their Cambridge presence.
2. Merck could increase its stable of patent-strong and late phase drugs as well as recoup its disappointing investment in Ridaforolimus with a company that it already had partnered with for years and gain a foothold in Cambridge.
3. Lilly: Make up for its significant near-term gap in patent-strong and late phase drugs, gain a new and effective drug discovery platform while finally building a presence in the Cambridge biotech/ Pharma hub.
4. Amgen and Biogen: finally get a proven small molecule platform that actually delivers
So I don't know if any of these or other scenarios are likely, but they are definitely not "garbage", delusional or silly to consider as potential scenarios. Either way, I think that this company is on a path to success.
Ariad does comment on FALSE rumors. For example, Ariad quickly denied a false rumor on Feb. 7, 2013, saying “to be very clear, Ariad is not for sale.”
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nonetheless, being fixated on purely speculative rumors (unverified information) is NOT a sound reason to buy a stock unless one views as pure gambling. GLTY and others holding the stock. I see ARIA as long term investment.
Don't forget NVS or Roche or even BMY as they have strong oncology portfolio. Aria should be going back upto mid teens as we wait for the companies and investment banks to do their DD. Even as a standalone company, the SP will trend up as more pipeline info is given for new molecule and revenue is again coming in.
Imo, a partnership is what elan did with biib with drug tysabri. Biib then caused more problems than help with tysabri as biib had a competing drug to tysabri that although inferior to tysabri, biib wanted 100% of the proceeds for their ms drug. I hope that either ariad goes it alone or is bought out, to partnership is like kissing your sister. Jmho-bucko
That's not exactly what Lilly said. It was interesting though that Goldman Sachs added fuel to the fire by even asking the question. Of all people I wouldn't think Goldman would be left out of the loop and must have thought enough of the rumor even ask the question.Then factor in the news Thursday and it's like adding gasoline to the fire!