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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

  • jamiejz jamiejz Jan 30, 2008 3:49 AM Flag

    After my VMW short, here is another DDUP reports thursday...

    After my VMW short, here is another DDUP reports thursday...

    Look at the VMW board and search for my postings. I made good money shorting VMW since Nov'07. I had predicted a week before that VMW will be cut in half after earnings...

    DDUP is another PIG. If you want to make some money, short this PIG. I have been short on it since $40. Bought more puts yesterday. Will report earnings this Thursday. Trading at a market cap of nearly $1.5 billion+ and not even $100mil in annual revenues yet. i.e 15x Sales. And it is not profitable either. So in this market, it will get slaughtered from $25 to under $8-10 if it misses or barely meets. Last Q, it beat on both revs and earnings but not by much and the stock tanked from $40+ to $35 in AH and it is on the way down ever since.

    So here is the risk/reward. If they beat handily, stock may go up a few points ($2-$3 at best in this market). But if it misses, it will be slashed in half ($10-12) in AH and will trade further down to $8-$9 in coming days.

    Another reason is that they may guide lower as the street is expecting 100% growth (naturally at such lofty valuation) and they may (I am sure they will) guide lower.

    No way, they can achieve 202.07M in Revenues from the current year's $105 million or so.

    Think Riverbed.

    So in short $3 upside risk max, and $12-$15 downside reward!

    Other notable shorts (thru puts) of mine:
    (open)
    IYR, DDUP, VMW, C, QQQQ (QQQQs for hedge only)
    (closed, but still room to go)
    ENOC COMV, LULU, CROX, CAVM BLOG
    (closed)
    STAR INFN ISLN ARUN DSL

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