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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

  • bonnielessman bonnielessman Sep 15, 2011 1:24 PM Flag

    hey tecstrategy good post

    where do you think LULU GOES FROM HERE GOOD POST

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    • I am holding Dec puts. The bottom for the market and the bottom for LULU is not even close to in. NFLX ran fast and hard for a long time before the fundamentals became sufficiently clear the short squeeze collusion failed. These MOMO stocks will be toppy over the next couple of months as institutions slowly get out to those willing to catch the falling knife.

      I think this see 40 in December. One analyst on the call asked a proxy for the highly relevant question -- what are the comp store sales by country. Canada is single digits. US has been 30%, but that is because the average age of the store is less and it takes a few years to ramp. As we move forward, a larger percentage of the US stores will have low single digit comp sales like Canada and the ratio of new stores to total will drop. Further, while LULU thinks it has corrected for currency effects, it has not. It can only see the "micro" effect on margins. But, the Canadian currency rose 20% in two years, creating a huge wealth and income effect as well. That has now reversed. The reversal will push Canadian SSS toward zero or negative.

      Just get to a place where you can hold your position for a year, even if it moves against you. This stock is at its top.

 
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