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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

  • mmiioollmmnu76 mmiioollmmnu76 Jan 12, 2012 6:06 PM Flag

    $9 billion market cap????

    Are you kidding me. It just doesn't add up. Each store is worth $60 million??? What assets do they own besides overpriced inventory? I've spoken with colleagues that are execs in the retail industry that have never heard of LULU. $98 yoga pants? $98 yoga mats. Frankly, I smell a dead fish here. Perhaps its Canadian accounting that would explain some of the insane valuation here and comp store numbers that are beyond belief. How many of LULU's stores are frandchised? Is it possible that Canadian accounting allows for double dipping sales...meaning when the parent co sales to the franchised stores its also counted as a sale. I've been to one of their stores and just walked out in total disbelief...saying you've got to be kidding me...this is a $9 billion market cap co...are you joking me. What is the catch? What am I missing here? LULU is worth more than ANF? Worth as much as GPS? Worth triple the vale of SHLD which owns a ton of real estate and owns Lands End? Worth much more than UA? Still shaking my head in absolute disbelief.

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    • mmiioollmmn...because you are just a phucking idiot short that cannot figure it out about the $9B and we don't give a sheet what you said and thought anyway!!!!

    • The fact that these so called execs have never heard of LULU only serves to support the thesis that LULU is still undiscovered and a growth story, when all the execs are wearing LULU gear and its and old story then you can argue the bear case.

      Also market cap is not a proper measure of individual store value, you should be looking for book value figures. Most investors are buying lulu on the assumption that it will be the NKE for women, I don't have the figures in front of me but I understand the majority of NKE customer base is men so considering that over half the american population is women this is a huge market and opportunity for lulu. If you think SHLD is such a great company go buy some shares, but don't forget to ask the investors on that board how well theve done the last 12 months.

      • 1 Reply to tradinontime
      • You are comparing a LULU to a Nike? Nike is a manufacturer of clothing that's available in numerous retail chains throughout the USA and abroad...everywhere from the Costcos to the WalMarts to the Costcos of the world. LULU manufacturers nothing. Never did. Never will. You can't even compare LULU to Under Armour. Under Armour is also available in numerous retail chains. You could not find a LULU product anywhere except in a LULU store or LULU online. IMHO LULU is the most overvalued stock I've ever seen; and I've been following the market for over thirty years. IMHO lULU is more overvalued than the glory days of triple digit priced shares of Krispy Kreme and Crocs. The market cap borders on absolute insanity.

    • Here is some info for you:
      1) Stores are no longer franchised - all owned by Lulu
      2) A good portion of Lulu's sales force are Yoga instructors
      3) Lulu adds approximatey 30 stores per year (last quarter count was 165 - 45 in Canada, 10 in Aust. and the rest in the US
      4) Lulu also sells over the web about 15% of their product
      5) Lulu grows every year about 30%. Within the last year revenue has grown by 39.5% with 24% more stores and 170 more sq feet on average per store
      6) Lulu's profit was up 106% in 2011 and will be up about 48% in 2011
      7) Lulu's profit is projected to grow 31% in 2013, 23.7% in 2014 and 26.1% in 2015
      8) Total earnings per share is expected to be $2.56 by 2015 - making a forward PE of 23.83 at the current share price assuming there are no slips or better performance
      9) There are 145MM shares out and about 2MM new shares are given out each year

      Hope this helps.

    • I would not compare it to ANF. That is basically a company with its own brand that competes with others like American Eagle etc....

      Lulu is a retailer. True...but is also turning into an athletic brand for women; it is not just about yoga.
      That brand name has a value now; remember nike addidas etc. tend to mens brands.

      That will make it hard to evaluate and new shorts will keeping trying. It is only when the brand factor is understood, will it peak.

    • Greater fool theory in effect in LULU.

      Too many funds are trapped in their long positions and will not let this drop.

      • 2 Replies to techinvestor75
      • Precisely. And because they are doing that, people will keep pulling cash out of funds because they don't trust the mutual fund managers. The massive internal imbalance in this market has created a trust deficit that will nt be easily repaired.

        The big boys tried the seller strike / short squeeze to catalyze performance chasing, but it isn't working. It may take a shock to send this cratering. But, some smaller holders are likely to start liquidating once this squeeze runs its course and leave the pigs to get slaughtered...

        In the meanwhile, I will be in very DITM LT puts as soon as this squeeze runs its course.

      • Seems a bit overvalued and high risk. I think a market correction will hit LULU hard.

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