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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Mar 8, 2012 9:46 AM Flag

    75 before earnings.

    It looks set up for that kind of move; I am factoring in the bullish sounding CEO from yesterday on CNBC.
    March 22 is plenty of time to hit the 75 level; at that point it is probably profit taking time for 1/2 of LULU long positions, imo. Longer term 100 is in the cards.

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    • 20, not 30

    • Paul, if you think that they have the market cornered in North America then it would be time to get out. I expect that they only have 10% of the market cornered and have growth in front of them in America - in some specific areas they are likely higher. Once a brand is well know and everywhere then is when it starts to deiterate - may take some time, but women like new trends and new brands.

    • yeah I covered at just under $72. There's no reason to fight this right now when the trend is still up. But soon this, KORS, and others will have their beating but who knows where the Fed will decide to stop buying stocks with what ends up being taxpayer money. thanks for the intelligent discussion points though.

    • I've been looking at the gyms and on the street. Addidas, Nike,and UA are far far more popular than LULU for women.

      LULU has high revenues per item, but they don't sell very many items compared to the mass-market brands. Were they to go mass-market, their margins or their brand would get crushed.

      So again, I'm not sure how you double sales when most of the target market already knows about your brand and is rapidly filling out their closet, and your brand is unaffordable (or a poor value) to those who don't shop at your stores.

    • The reason I say it is like Nike is that it targets women only (small sales for men). Nike and Under Armour are male brands. Lulu has a chance to target 1/2 the population with a female brand. Started with Yoga, then running, etc..... but it is not just fashion, it is atheletic wear too.
      They got the market cornered in North America and that will move into Europe/China sooner or later and that is why there is growth.

      As for bubbles, my experience has been the best time to short bubble stocks is when they are breaking down.That is what happened in 2000; by early 2000 the big short funds were wiped out and the stocks were in free fall afterwards. Technically driven shorts for bubble stocks is best. Right now, that would be NFLX or Amazon but to me they would just be hedges against long positions.

      well, good luck with your trading.

    • If 1/2 longs took profits that would be over 50 Million shares - not likely since buying sn't large at this price point - maybe 10 Million Shares.

      Realistically how good do the numbers have to be for this to jump on release of Q4? I expect the earnings will be around $0.69 - is this good enough if they don't have a great expectation for next quarter? How much have they been selling in February and early March - anyone any idea?

    • you do realize we've seen this game before and it ended badly... no reason to think it's different this time. until then.. up up and away bubbleonians!

    • Even if it falls over, there are many who:

      1) are on the sideline waiting to pounce on the dip.
      2) are short and want to cover at any price
      3) are already long and wants to add more.

      The economy is getting stronger by the day. As more milionaires are being made (thanks to new IPOs), there will be a very white Christmas this year. It may even come in much sooner this year!

      Sure, the shorties can catch a lucky break on the downside. What high beta stock doesnt come down?

    • Thanks so much for your thoughtful reply. Yeah it's looking like it might be a bit till this thing falls over and back into reality. Totally understand that the view is that this is the new Nike but not sure I agree with that since it lacks the broad pricing and product appeal that Nike does so I believe it will come down at some point but not until we get that market correction we're way overdue for... thought that might've been this week but nope

    • i meant when people see Coach bags everywhere it loses it appeal and women will look for something different.
      However, LULU clothes actually functionality.

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LULU
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