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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

  • kissmysaltynuts kissmysaltynuts Apr 28, 2013 12:33 AM Flag

    Stock is very hard to borrow which explains why it's being supported.

    But history tells us that richly valued stocks with high short interest tend to do poorly once the stock becomes less hard to borrow. In addition, investing in retail clothing stocks is a tricky business because once the sales start to slow and forward comps begin to look less impressive(as is the current case with LULU), the multiple will inevitably come down as fund managers shy away for paying a premium for slowing growth. So even if LULU's sales continue to increase but the growth rate slows, its P/E multiple will contract to that of its competitors. UA has a P/S of half that of LULU's and nearly 50% more in gross sales than LULU. (1.37 Billion Vs. 1.92 Billion) and is growing just as fast, the main difference being UA stock is not hard to borrow which makes price discovery more efficient.

    Who knows where LULU can trade in the near-term but history tells us that longer term, the stock price will most likely underperform the market.

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    • I'd be more concerned that the "E" in P/E will be lower than most expect. Retail is an incredibly fickle business. LULU's recent branding and recall missteps could cost it dearly.

      Sentiment: Sell

      • 1 Reply to frontview.mirror
      • It is not like it is an unknown thing. Lulu is a major ticking time bomb but the question is more of how long can WS keep it higher.

        Take a look at the market and one sees companies no average joe would consider paying such a premieum for trading at ridiculous premieums for over a year now and companies that average joe would consider buying severely underperforming.

        The market is irrational longer than people stay solvent or stay patient for. But this is a future 2B company trading at 11B for no reason.


    • The hard part of investing for most people has nothing to do with buying good stocks or selling short highly overpriced ones like Lululemon. It is staying solvent and sticking with the investment.


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