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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jul 18, 2011 6:26 PM Flag

    IBM cut to SELL. Target $98

    I'm reading and listening...doesn't add up. The weak dollar and low interest rates--all highly inflationary--will destroy the share price over the near term. I just can't sit back and watch Fraud St. rip off people pumping this. Organic results are not impressive, period. Unsustainable to say the least. Sell the news. I think this is as good as it gets, folks.

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    • GET HELP...

      share price over the near term. I just can't sit back and watch Fraud St. rip off people pumping this. Organic results are not impressive, period. Unsustainable to say the least. Sell the news. I think this is as good as it gets, folks.

    • not this year though. We might have to wait until first quarter 2012.

    • After Split!

    • Target $98.....AFTER SPLIT

    • Ok, how about these facts:

      IBM EPS:

      2006 6.06
      2007 7.18
      2008 8.93
      2009 10.01
      2010 11.52
      2011 13.25

      So during a near depression (08/09) they grew EPS 39%.

      They have raised dividend 14 years in a row

      They have the whole world snowed that they save them money (personally think 1/2 of the stuff tech guys do is a waste of money that doesn't work but hell big time CEO's keep installing SAP so apparently they are too stupid to stop)

      They are a hugely global company, not dependent on US/europe growth. Growing economies are not going to slow down due to temporary setbacks (refer back to years 07/08/09 if you want to disagree and explain that)

      If the US defaults on debt, then you are right, were all screwed, eventually gold will fall apart as well since it is a worthless metal in the end but I happen to believe that is overblown hype and will not be a real issue for the next 3-5 years.

      You called some good shorts but did you miss the bottom in 09? or last summer? this summer is just like last year, great earnings, lousy macro news and a lot of people selling scared. Great opportunity to crush the market if you have cash right now

      Listen, not as cheap as it was 40% ago when I bought it but it is a nice stock, PEG ratio is reasonable for a blue chip with good growth and they can force the EPS with the big cash hoard so I'm staying on the ride if it stays slow and steady all the way to $250 in 3 years

      • 3 Replies to johns.patrick
      • So the 3 arguments are:

        IBM makes money when the dollar is down

        IBM makes money when the cut costs

        IBM at $250 in 3 years won't be enough to outstip inflation

        My rebuttal

        you think the dollar will continue to fall, IBM makes money off weak dollar so seems to me you are making an argument for IBM not against

        Yes, IBM is buying up companies, consolidating, cutting costs. then it makes more money. Look at revenue growth dummy, the profit is from revenue growth and cost cutting

        I'll take my chances that inflation isn't 12.5% over next 3 years

        By the way you missed the other "poor quality earnings argument" they are buying shares back so the EPS is fake. Except thats why I invest in companies that are earning gobs of cash, they can impact the EPS with their huge cash horde.

        Anyway, haven't convinced me different, you guys should be 100% in gold so I don't know why you are bothering with this board

      • Lets talk about quality of earning. Today, IBM is telling all her employees to be ready to more cost cuttings and smaller raises. So if IBM does not show solid earning growth then the current price is not sustainable. Simple cost cutting to boost earning will not last long...

      • I think the market agrees. Up 1.6% in a/h. Big deal. At this point, people realize it's PRICED IN.

        Compare the US dollar over the same periods. It's tanked. Of course foreign results are going to make US-dollar results look 60% or more "improved." But don't be fooled. Interest rates were much higher and dollar stronger.

        If you believe rates will stay this low forever, I'd be more inclined to agree with your $250. And even at that price, are you really "ahead" as inflation kills this country? Inflation has been screaming up (gold $1,600 now, oil $100, gasoline $4), so regardless of the price increase in IBM stock, once you adjust for inflation/falling dollar, results are not that great ergo neither is the price appreciation in the stock.

    • Moron

    • Shortie !!!!!!!

    • liar liar

    • I remember calling Lehman short at $115 was difficult. You guys all got over that; you'll get over this.

      I know. It's the problem with all great calls. It's why only BFG makes them. GS short $194.50 anyone????????????? And heading under $100. Bank on it.


    • that's why u still live in a crappy apartment.

189.83+0.19(+0.10%)Sep 30 4:01 PMEDT

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