In my experience IBM follows major market declines and advances like most other stocks. Over time IBM lags its earnings results. Unlike most other stocks, IBM's model produces highly predictable financial metrics.
Market conditions change day to day. The points per day in either direction, the, "watch what happens as expired time equals price" and the square root of 50 seem like a side show for IBM compared to current EPS, cash flow and outlook. I can appreciate day trading IBM or channel trading IBM and volatility a couple of weeks before or after earnings, but over time I have found that IBM trades on its fundamentals.
Right now IBM appears constrained by international demand and not by the square root of 50.