It looks like the degree of difficulty for the comparison will be average. Revenue last year was flat, mitigated by software performance and overall Gross margin: It was good enough for a $.15 hike in the annual bogey at the time of $$14.85 for 2012 -- which came in at $15.25 compared to the $14.85 IBM predicted when it reported Q4 2011 -- that's just $.40 over or 3% That's either lucky or IBM really thought 2012 would be a little better than it actually turned out. Hardware should be better this Q1 YOY:
"IBM reports 2012 first-quarter results
Diluted EPS: GAAP: $2.61, up 13 percent;
Operating (non-GAAP): $2.78, up 15 percent;
Net income: GAAP: $3.1 billion, up 7 percent;
Operating (non-GAAP): $3.3 billion, up 9 percent;
Gross profit margin: GAAP: 45.1 percent, up 0.9 points;
Operating (non-GAAP): 45.7 percent, up 1.2 points;
Revenue: $24.7 billion, flat, up 1 percent adjusting for currency;
Free cash flow of $1.9 billion, up $1.1 billion;
Software revenue up 5 percent, 7 percent adjusting for currency;
Services revenue up 1 percent:
Services pre-tax income up 11 percent;
Services backlog of $139 billion, down 2 percent, up 1 percent adjusting for currency;
Systems and Technology revenue down 7 percent, 6 percent adjusting for currency;
Growth markets revenue up 9 percent;
Business analytics revenue up 14 percent;
Smarter Planet revenue up more than 25 percent;
Cloud revenue doubled first-quarter 2011 revenue;
Full-year 2012 operating (non-GAAP) EPS expectations raised to at least $15.00 from at least $14.85."
I look for the Q1 2013 results to show a revenue increase of 2.5-3% on the top line or revenue side of things but we should note that margins will continually improve contributing to an EPS beat. Big Blue is growing 16% year over year for the last 5 years and we should see a buyback or a divi increase although the former seems more likely.
I expect a rise to 220 or so assuming we can float through the the Cyprus mess and 215 if this mess continues into the earnings release. I'd expect a 4-5% pop of 7 to 8 bucks a share to 223-228 a share propping the stock to yet another new level never seen.
EPS should continue to growth at a nice pace for the next few quarters as we should see an upward revision in estimates to the bottomline.
I hope so. It seems like IBM is still getting punished for oracle's screw up and that's ridiculous. Oracle is a universally hated company who expanded their hardware sales force. They all missed their quotas and probably sold nothing and now oracle has to fire most of them.