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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • mr_dinky_dot_bomb mr_dinky_dot_bomb Mar 25, 2013 6:31 PM Flag

    Q1 2013 versus Q1 2012

    It looks like the degree of difficulty for the comparison will be average. Revenue last year was flat, mitigated by software performance and overall Gross margin: It was good enough for a $.15 hike in the annual bogey at the time of $$14.85 for 2012 -- which came in at $15.25 compared to the $14.85 IBM predicted when it reported Q4 2011 -- that's just $.40 over or 3% That's either lucky or IBM really thought 2012 would be a little better than it actually turned out. Hardware should be better this Q1 YOY:

    "IBM reports 2012 first-quarter results

    First-Quarter 2012

    Diluted EPS: GAAP: $2.61, up 13 percent;
    Operating (non-GAAP): $2.78, up 15 percent;

    Net income: GAAP: $3.1 billion, up 7 percent;
    Operating (non-GAAP): $3.3 billion, up 9 percent;

    Gross profit margin: GAAP: 45.1 percent, up 0.9 points;
    Operating (non-GAAP): 45.7 percent, up 1.2 points;

    Revenue: $24.7 billion, flat, up 1 percent adjusting for currency;
    Free cash flow of $1.9 billion, up $1.1 billion;
    Software revenue up 5 percent, 7 percent adjusting for currency;
    Services revenue up 1 percent:
    Services pre-tax income up 11 percent;
    Services backlog of $139 billion, down 2 percent, up 1 percent adjusting for currency;
    Systems and Technology revenue down 7 percent, 6 percent adjusting for currency;
    Growth markets revenue up 9 percent;
    Business analytics revenue up 14 percent;
    Smarter Planet revenue up more than 25 percent;
    Cloud revenue doubled first-quarter 2011 revenue;
    Full-year 2012 operating (non-GAAP) EPS expectations raised to at least $15.00 from at least $14.85."

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    • I look for the Q1 2013 results to show a revenue increase of 2.5-3% on the top line or revenue side of things but we should note that margins will continually improve contributing to an EPS beat. Big Blue is growing 16% year over year for the last 5 years and we should see a buyback or a divi increase although the former seems more likely.

      I expect a rise to 220 or so assuming we can float through the the Cyprus mess and 215 if this mess continues into the earnings release. I'd expect a 4-5% pop of 7 to 8 bucks a share to 223-228 a share propping the stock to yet another new level never seen.

      EPS should continue to growth at a nice pace for the next few quarters as we should see an upward revision in estimates to the bottomline.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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