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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • texmax125 texmax125 Dec 27, 2013 6:28 PM Flag

    IBM's 4Q Earning Report

    Is it possible that IBM's 4Q earning report could kick start the long due Market meltdown? In the process IBM could collapse all the way down to $160 or lower! Just my humble opinion.

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    • Could this really happen?

    • "Is it possible that IBM's 4Q earning report could kick start the long due Market meltdown?"

      nah

    • It is becoming more likely that IBM's 4th Quarter report could really kick start the long due Market meltdown!!

    • IBM is a rock. Buy a piece.

    • Sure anything is possible including rapture, but the market is not super expensive and IBM is down right inexpensive. Cyclical stocks haven't even started their run yet so the recover is still in it's early stages. People are still fearful, I don't hear stock flipping tips from 20-somethings at work yet. So we may get a 10% correction next year but the market will end the year higher and if earnings from a stronger economy come through and cyclicals make their move we could be up 15% or more still again. I think this market has a long ways to go..

    • It seems to me we could be in the middle of a market melt up. According to the 2013 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, London Business School, global stock total returns have been about 5% real, compound average growth rate, from 1900 to the present. The Dow is up 2385 from it's 2007 peak, which is 14.47% over six years. A paltry 2.41% average per year - if you look at it from that perspective. There's too many moving parts involved for anyone to accurately predict the future; all we have is the past and you can bias that anyway from sunday to suit your thinking. I shed some IBM at 212 for the simple reason that it became over 5% of my portfolio. I reinvested what I sold in an S&P index fund which has plenty of IBM in it, that way I never have to worry about any one company going out of business, since all I can lose is 5%. Not that any of the S&P companies look like they will go belly up any time soon. It's not rocket surgery, it's just common sense investing - minus the greed.

    • Tex, about now! You may want to reavaluate "the long due mkt meltdown?? If this mkt continues higher?? IBM has already had a meltdown.. Ain't there some saying, about, don't fight the tape?? Who knows when mkt will top out?? We know it can't go but so low.. It could go up forever!!! Here is the move you better worry about, if you want to play it to go down? At what point would it make good sense.. For IBM to, borrow money to buy back a bunch of stk?? Interest rates, would'nt be that much greater, than they are paying out in dividends...

    • absolutely ... but then anything is possible , here on the fantasy boards ...
      my guess is that IBM will lay out their cloud plans and give robust guidance and the stock could shoot to 250 ..
      or things could just fizzle throughout 2014 ...

    • Shorted stock yesterday,, right at its technical top...I see nothing but financial engineering here,, no matter how many times in my career I begged CEO's NOT to buy back their own stock, when there's so little out there and invariably it turns to disaster. WHY??? cause u tell me that the 15 bill they spent in this environment coud not have created 50 billion of market cap??? instead it one of the only DOW stocks DOWN this year...in a plus 28% market.. BAD BAD BAD management

      • 1 Reply to cmonivleeg
      • Thanks for the lesson Professor cmon. You may have begged CEO's "Not to buy back their own stock" but other famous folks besides you like buybacks. In fact it looks like the core of NYSE and NASDAQ stocks are following IBM's lead and buying back all they can. The leader of the pack of course is Verizon who just essentially bought back equity of itself by buying the 45% of Verizon Wireless it didn't own with a huge debt offering.

        "During the third-quarter, share buybacks among members of the S&P 500 surged 32% year-over-year to $123.9 billion, according to FactSet. Over the trailing 12-month period, a massive $448.1 billion worth of shares were repurchased, representing the biggest haul since the second quarter of 2008. Furthermore, 431 companies in the index participated in a share repurchase program during the third quarter.

        At $30.7 billion, the Information Technology sector spent the most on buybacks in the third quarter, up 78.5% from a year earlier. Apple, Qualcomm (QCOM), Cisco Systems, (CSCO),Yahoo! (YHOO), Visa (V), SanDisk (SNDK), and Intuit (INTU) each increased their share buybacks by at least $1 billion year-over-year. Apple made the largest contribution by increasing its activity by $5 billion. In the second-quarter alone, Apple repurchased $16 billion and accounted for nearly 13% of all repurchases in the S&P 500."

    • anything is possible. Its also possible that IBM could surge to 200 in a couple of months. Like I said, anything is possible.

 
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