so far , the price decline has been almost measured .. no more than avg daily volume on the ride down from
196 .. i would say capitulation is still a way off ... more than likely , there is another tier holding on in case
the next ER will surprise ... i doubt that it will .... another miss will probably bring about some healthy volumes and
i would not want to hazard a guess where the bottom will be , probably around 145 , but who knows at this
point .... in summary , i would not be in a hurry to buy back in ... even once the stock price stabilizes and
the market perception of fair value is met , the recovery won't come the next day ...
I still believe that IBM is one of the strongest companies on the planet and most likely will be successful
reinventing itself for the umpteenth time , but it's investor sentiments that drive stock price and those are
pretty sour at this point .. for the big insts. who will pour billions into a stock , they need to see a lot
more before coming back to Big Blue ... g
20 analysts put it on hold - means sell. I won't touch it till it hits 160. Go with the herd, you can leverage money better in fast grow co. such as GNW and DFS. Just look at their charts comparing to IBM. IBM is in restructuring and money trap mode. The plan is to reinvent inself for 5 years. I believe 2 years has gone by with 8 quarters of declining sales. 3 more years to go. My BYD.UN has already gone up 400% with still many more years of high growth. IBM value will not wake up for at least 2 years. Let see how China clamp down on its business will hurt. I am in wait and see mode. I will buy it when it is on further discount.
Look at the long term chart from 2010 to 2014, it has suddenly gone up 80%, it's raise seems too quick, the ascend seems to be too steep. A lot of purchase was at $100 level, after stagnant for 2 years, I won't be surprise a bunch is cashing out for now. The current chart looks very awful and MCAD indicates significant down pressure. .