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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • HarrymetSally2 HarrymetSally2 Feb 28, 1998 12:45 AM Flag

    STOCKMARKET GETTING READY FOR A BIGGGG N

    keep an eye on markets first week of march....losses of 8 to 12% should be expected...why?

    because, even with this loss, the market is still at a tremendous high....no way the market will retain it's strength...cash in, take a break...

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    • Remember - you said the first week of March the market would take an 8
      to 12% loss?

      I suggested that I buy ALD DD HWP MMM and UTX - and you sell them short... as documented in msg #678.

      I win ---- a whole $31.25. Up a whopping .09%

      Tryinng to time the market - well it can be done - but...... I can't and it looks like you can't either.
      Keep selling short - someday you will actually have a profit. If you have any money left.

    • I look forward to all of the individuals out there who think that the market will go down based on historical data. You
      really need to read "The Pig in the Python" to get an understanding of what is going on. There is a huge group of boomers who are
      pumping billions into their IRA�s. This is a dynamic that will continue at least until 2012. They realize that in the long term the
      stock market is the only game in town. THIS MONEY IS LOOKING FOR A HOME! Sure the market will have some dips (See buying
      opportunities) but in the long run it will continue to appreciate unless the Republican�s do something stupid like eliminate 401K�s!

      Too many day traders on this board. When making determinations to buy or sell use your brain. Yes Microsoft is overpriced
      but in the long run you are better off simply leaving it there. Don�t listen to the fools who keep saying that the market is
      overdue for a 10% drop. The only way that will happen is if interest rates go up to around 7.5%. With the national debt where it is
      today Allen Greenspan will not allow that to happen. Also, keep an eye on the price of oil. Currently extremely low which will
      once again reinforce the fact that inflation is under control so money will continue to flow into 401K�s and find a home at
      Microsoft.

      • 1 Reply to doglvr_dan
      • From your comment "it will continue to appreciate unless the Republican�s(sic) do something stupid like eliminate 401K�s!" I can see you are fertile ground for the Democrat line on taxes. It essentially panders to the concern people have for maintaining all their tax breaks. It's a divide and conquer stategy that pits one person's deductions against another's to maintain the current Byzantine tax code.

        What you need to realize is that you are paying an amount for everyone else's tax breaks that is more than you are saving
        from your own. Why have money in 401K's with restrictions on withdrawal? Why not have a flat and low tax rate with a fixed
        personal exemption that doesn't require all these deductions (including 401k's) that you crave to maintain a reasonable tax bill.
        I've seen estimates up to $250 billion per year for the whole economy just for complying with the tax filing requirements. Your
        share of that is at least $1000/year. That's not tax payments; that's the cost of filing (accountants, H&R Block, personal time,
        paperwork storage, legal fees, etc.).

        Also, don't forget that the Republicans' "stupid" plan includes an elimination of capital gains taxes and taxes on dividends and interest.

        It looks like you shouldn't be corresponding on issues pertaining to individual stocks. With your understanding of economics, you should stick to index mutual funds or else seek out Hillary's cattle futures broker (but only if you have influence to peddle).

    • I wonder how short sellers have survived for the last 15 years... maybe they eat their confirmation notices.

      Tell you what - I'll buy 100 shares of the following 5 stocks - All in DOW 30.....

      ALD 42 9/16
      DD 61 5/16
      HWP 67
      MMM 85 5/16
      UTX 89 5/16 Total Cost $34550 Now - you sell them short....

      I'll check back on 3/8/98

 
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